World Cup Betting: Sri Lanka v New Zealand

Match Previews / Ed Hawkins / 27 March 2011 /

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Tillakaratne Dilshan is in form

"The Kiwis were bowled out for 119 and 155 on their last two visits to the RPS and they average 224 batting first in Asia against Test nations in the last five years"

Ed Hawkins is confident his pre-tournament pick will triumph in the first semi-final in Colombo on Tuesday. Follow his in-running advice on Twitter here

London start time: 10.00

Team news
Sri Lanka could be forgiven for picking the same XI that crushed England by 10 wickets. But that could be complacent. No punter wants to be with a side which has Lasith Malinga batting at No 8.

The solution could be to recall Nuwan Kulasekara at the expense of third spinner Rangana Herath. That is the line-up Sri Lanka went with when they beat the Kiwis by 112 runs in Mumbai in the group stage.

New Zealand have lost Kyle Mills to injury. His replacement in the squad is Andy McKay. McKay won't play, however, as the Black Caps, quite rightly, stick with the side that stunned South Africa.

Venue and conditions
The RPS is a punter's dream. We know the surface like we do our own mother at this stage of the tournament. The heavy toss bias - only five of the last 20 won day-nighters won by the chasers - has to be respected even if Sri Lanka bucked the trend against England.

The wicket is tricky to score quickly on. The average first-innings score in the last 10 ODIs is 228. That gives a solid base for our stand-out wager. Lay New Zealand for 250 runs or more.

The Kiwis were bowled out for 119 and 155 on their last two visits to the RPS, they average 224 batting first in Asia against Test nations in the last five years (passing 250 only six times out of 19) and they average 235 in the last five v Sri Lanka.

Match odds
This sounds odd but despite embarrassing England, Sri Lanka were not wholly convincing. Their fielding, usually so reliable, was dreadful and they looked nervous when England threatened a score of 250 or more.

They are not to be backed at [1.36] - we never play at such odds anyway - and the importance of the coin toss gives potential for following New Zealand in-running.

Still, this column has not been a fan of the Kiwis throughout the tournament and we
wouldn't back them at [3.70] either. They did brilliantly to get South Africa to choke but one is sure they will once again fall in the semi-finals.

Top batsman - Sri Lanka
Tillakaratne Dilshan, fresh from a ton in the quarter-finals, is the second-highest runscorer in the tournament. He averages 20 against the Kiwis in the last five years and is [4.30]. Upul Tharanga, also a centurion, is [5.10]. Kumar Sangakkara and Mahela Jaywardene, who have 553 and 524 runs respectively against their opponents in the study period, are [4.40] and [5.80].

Top batsman - New Zealand
Scott Styris has the best average of the Kiwis against Sri Lanka at 45. At [10.50] he has to rate as value. Ross Taylor (23) and Brendon McCullum (16.50) are [4.80] and [5.30].

Featured market
In the five completed matches at the RPS in the tournament the average number of sixes struck per game is two. More pertinently for a market which offers between zero and four at [2.16], there have not been more than three in one game.

Best bet: Lay New Zealand for 250 or more at [2.50]

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