Match Previews / Ed Hawkins / 25 March 2011 /

Ed Hawkins does not have much faith in England but in Colombo on Saturday the importance of the toss in the last quarter-final gives them a sniff. Follow his in-running advice on Twitter here

London start time: 09.00

Team news
Sri Lanka could keep faith with the side that defeated New Zealand by 112 runs last time out. Places for Muttiah Muralitharan and Ajantha Mendis are assured but the hosts could pick a third spinner in Rangana Herath.

England have lost Michael Yardy, who has returned home suffering from depression. Adil Rashid has been called up as Yardy's replacement but he will not be involved.

Tim Bresnan is expected to be fit after going for a scan on his troublesome calf. England must decide whether to persevere with Matt Prior as opener. Ian Bell and Ravi Bopara could be promoted instead.

Jade Dernbach, the Surrey paceman, is in contention but England will surely not risk someone so inexperienced at the expense of James Anderson.

Venue and conditions
In the last 46 (10 years) day-night ODI matches at the RPS in Colombo only 12 have been won by the chasing outfit. It is a heavy toss bias that gives England a better chance than they should have. Only twice has a side chased more than 250 - India (271) against England in 2002 and Sri Lanka (263) against South Africa in 2004. The average first-innings score over the last 10 day-night matches is 238.

Match odds

England should not really have got this far in the tournament. They have been exciting, but only because they have been so poor. So they should be grateful that they meet Sri Lanka at a ground where the toss is so important.

Had they been playing elsewhere, we could probably rely on Sri Lanka dishing out the kind of thumping that England have been asking for. That may still happen, but only if the home side win the toss.

Ordinarily in this situation we would side with the biggest priced team - England at [2.88] - and hope the coin flip goes our way. Instead we prefer to wait and if Kumar Sangakkara has a 'decision' to make, lump on.

Top batsman - Sri Lanka
Opener and [4.60] shot Tillakaratne Dilshan (286 runs) and [5.30] Upul Tharanga (261) have scored heavily while [4.30] favourite Sangakkara (363) was the leading runscorer at the end of the group stages. But Dilshan averages only 19 against England in 10 ODI innings and rates poor value. Mahela Jaywardene, who has the best average of a Sri Lankan against England in the last 10 years, is [6.60].

Top batsman - England
Runs at the RPS in this tournament have largely come from outside the opening pair and Strauss and Prior at [5.00] and [7.10] respectively are ones to avoid. On an expected tacky surface Eoin Morgan is Mr Reliable and looks a decent poke at [6.60].

Featured market
Strauss and Prior average only 23 as an opening pair and you should be able to lay at around [3.00] for 40 runs or more.

Best bet: lay side batting first for 275 or more

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