Match Previews / Ed Hawkins / 04 March 2011 /

Ed Hawkins is relishing the prospect of this contest in Colombo on Saturday. And there is a clear punting strategy, too. Follow him on Twitter here

London start time: 09.00

Team news
Sri Lanka look to have unleashed Lasith Malinga, the slingy fast man, at exactly the right time. He took six wickets against Kenya to find form ahead of this contest and the home side look a far more potent outfit with him in the line-up.

As they do with mystery spinner Ajantha Mendis, who could also keep his place. Mendis forms a potentially lethal partnership with Muttiah Muralitharan. Sure, the prospect of wickets are there but it is the duo's ability to keep down the run rate which will most concern Australia.

The Aussies will have to counter that pairing if they are to win. But they will have to do it without Mike Hussey. He is still waiting to hear whether he will join up with the squad having recovered from a hamstring injury.

Venue and conditions
The RPS in Colombo is a punter's dream. A look through recent scorecards tell us exactly what we should be expecting. The wicket is flat and good for batting and there is a heavy toss bias.

The average first-innings score in the last 10 day-night ODIs is 252, although that figure should probably be higher considering Kenya were knocked over for 142 and (oddly) Pakistan could manage only 184 against Canada. We should expect a first-innings score of 275 or more.

As for the toss, it is vital. Lose it and bowl first and you may as well pack up. In the last 22 matches (five years) only five have been won by the chasing outfit. In day-nights only three from 18.

Match odds
This is a classic World Cup contest where both side's strengths and weaknesses appear to cancel out each other.

We have Sri Lanka who are strong on spin but weak against pace bowling. Australia are weak against spin and strong with pace bowling. It is a conundrum and we are thankful for the toss bias to guide us.

We have to recommend that you get with the side who bats first. Anything else would be a dereliction of duty. But what if there wasn't such a key pointer?

Well, we would favour Sri Lanka, who should probably be shorter than [1.94] as the market does not often respect historic toss importance. The surface has shown that spinners are rewarded and Australia, who have not lost for 31 World Cup matches, by the way, really struggled against turn in the warm-ups.

Top batsman - Sri Lanka
Sri Lanka's batsman have struggled against Australia recently. In the last five years, none from Kumar Sangakkara, Mahela Jayawardene, Tillakaratne Dilshan, Charama Silva or Upul Tharanga average more than 33. But none of those games were played in Asia, so it is difficult to put much store in the numbers. Sangakkara is, however, comfortably the top runscorer in that sequence against the Aussies. He is even money for a 50 and [4.50] for top bat.

Top batsman - Australia
Shane Watson continues to be Australia's most impressive run getter. He is likely to go off at around [4.00] for honours and [1.97] for a 50. Ricky Ponting is [4.50] and is [2.00] for a 50. However, that could be a lay as he is a shadow of his former self and is none too impressive against spin these days, going hard at the ball.

Featured market
You have to respect Australia's pace triumvirate of Brett lee, Shaun Tait and Mitchell Johnson. The trio can barely be separated for top Aussie bowler as they all hover around the [3.50] mark.

Best bets: Back side who bats first, back side who bats first for 275 or more at around [2.00]

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