Match Previews / Ed Hawkins / 29 March 2011 /

According to Ed Hawkins, this combustibile contest in Mohali on Wednesday could be decided by the toss. Follow his in-running advice on Twitter here

London start time: 10.00

Team news
The 22 men picked for the mother of all showdowns will swallow hard before emerging into bright sunshine in Mohali on Wednesday afternoon. A place in a World Cup final is at stake. For some of their countrymen watching on television, it's more important than life itself.

India are likely to stick with the XI that beat Australia in the quarter-finals. That means Suresh Raina, cool under pressure, retains his place. The hosts could recall Yusuf Pathan, another big-game player, for Ravi Ashwin but that would be harsh on the spinner.

Pakistan are unlikely to resist the temptation to recall Shoaib Akhtar. They are desperate for quick wickets and Shoaib is seen as a greater threat than Wahab Riaz.

Venue and conditions
The PCA stadium surface is seen as a batsman-friendly. The first innings average in ODIs in the last five years is a healthy 275. There is a toss bias we have to be wary of, too. In the last 10 years there have been nine day-night matches played at the venue and only three have been won by the side chasing. Overall only five sides batting second have won under lights out of 15.

Match odds
On the face of it a good batting wicket and a very fine batting line-up gives India, who are [1.62], an advantage against [2.58] Pakistan. But a closer study makes it difficult not to reckon that MS Dhoni's side are poor value.

To back them purely because they have better batsman would appear to be folly. India had the better batting against England in the group stages on a good surface but they didn't win.

And in 2007 in Mohali they had the better batting line-up against Pakistan. They still lost, though as Pakistan chased 322. It was Pakistan's second win at the venue in two attempts.

The bottom line, however, is that the prices are wrong. We think India should be about [1.75] here. Their lack of penetration with the ball - only Zaheer Khan will worry Pakistan - and the toss bias means we have no option but to side with Shahid Afridi's men.

Top batsman - India
Yuvraj Singh and MS Dhoni have the best records against Pakistan in the last five years. Yuvraj (499 runs) is [6.00] for honours and [3.05] for a 50. Dhoni (496) is [8.80] under Any Other and is a poor [2.22] for 50. Sachin Tendulkar, who averages 72 in Mohali, is [4.00] and [1.83] respectively with Virender Sehwag [4.50] and [2.50].

Top batsman - Pakistan
Younis Khan is your bet if you want to play this market. He made 117 on this ground in 2007 and with 617 runs against India he is Pakistan most successful current batsman. He is [5.50] for top bat and [2.56] for 50.

Featured market
This column advised a back-to-lay of Pakistan at [11.00] at the start of the tournament based on them making the semi-finals. They are now [5.50] to lay. Job done. Discipline is very important in betting and although we rate them in this semi, we must stick to our guns and treat the wagers as separate entities. Besides, not every reader would have followed pre-tournament advice.

Best bet: back Pakistan at [2.58]

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