Match Previews / Ed Hawkins / 16 March 2011 /

Ed Hawkins is sweet on England to keep their World Cup hopes alive in Chennai on Thursday. Follow him on Twitter here for in-running advice

London start time: 09.00

Team news
There could be a raft of changes for England. That is the biggest clue of all to their form for this must-win game. Don't forget, if they lose they're out.

Do they play two specialist spinners? Should a profligate James Anderson retain his place? Is Chris Tremlett worth a gamble? Should Matt Prior continue to open with Andrew Strauss? Strauss, and Graeme Swann, are expected to be fit after missing practice because of illness.

West Indies have problems, too. Chris Gayle has an abdominal strain and is touch-and-go to be fit despite sitting out the win over Ireland.

Otherwise the Windies are without Dwayne Bravo, which leaves their bowling extremely
weak. Kemar Roach took a hat-trick against Netherlands and is an obvious threat. Only Sulieman Benn and his nagging brand of spin may concern England.

Venue and conditions
We do not expect this to be a high-scoring match. Kenya were knocked over for 69 against New Zealand and although that told us very little, England's nailbiting win over South Africa told us everything. This is a turgid surface where spinners should dominate.

The average first-innings score in matches (seven) since 2000 is 214. Factor that into innings runs bets.

Match odds
England's first task is to beat themselves before they turn their attention to West Indies. It is no secret that the players are shattered and have 'had enough', according to one journalist, but if they can raise themselves for a final time they should have too much for the Windies.

There is a lot to like about their price of [1.76], too for we were expecting something in the region of [1.65]. They have won their last four ODIs against West Indies - three of them convincingly - and look far better equipped to deal with the Chennai surface with either bat or ball.

Top batsman - England
Andrew Strauss (298 runs), Jonathan Trott (289) and Ian Bell (193) are the men in form for England. Trott is favourite at [4.80] with Strauss [5.00] and Bell [5.80]. On a slow surface, Eoin Morgan [6.40] is probably the best bet.

Top batsman - West Indies
We don't want to be backing Gayle for runs. His injury will not help him on a wicket which does not suit his style. He got a first-ball duck when he played at the venue in 2007.

Gayle is [4.30] jolly but we might lay him for a 50 at around [3.00]. Devon Smith, West Indies' leading runscorer with 202, should like the wicket. He is [5.50]. Shiv Chanderpaul is value, however, under Any Other at [6.20]. Kieron Pollard is [9.00].

Featured market
Do not forget the relationship between the winning side's top runscorer and the man of the match award. Check prices for Morgan and Chanderpaul to pick up the gong. It could pay to take those odds instead - they will be much bigger.

Best bet: back England @ [1.76]

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