Match Previews / Ed Hawkins / 18 March 2011 /

Ed Hawkins insists the toss is all important as Group B goes down to the wire in Dhaka in the early hours of Saturday. Check his Twitter account for in-running advice...

London start time: 03.30

Team news
Bangladesh should be unchanged from their win over England which kept their World Cup chances alive but they are likely to feel crestfallen that certain qualification was cruelly taken away from them by West Indies' chaos.

South Africa expect to be at full strength, which is something of a surprise given they do not need to win the game. AB de Villiers, Imran Tahir and Dale Steyn will undergo fitness tests.

De Villiers has had a thigh problem, Tahir a fractured thumb and Steyn a side strain. Certainly it would seem extraordinary to risk De Villiers and Steyn with the potential for more damage.

With De Villiers back Morne Van Wyk will drop down the order while Colin Ingram will miss out. One from Robin Peterson and Johan Botha will make way for Tahir.

Venue and conditions
The Shere Bangla National stadium surface is a difficult one to gauge. India made it look like a batting paradise, then Bangladesh suggested it was a slow turner against Ireland before West Indies bowlers made it look a minefield. Still, in the last 10 ODIS at the venue the first-innings average is 209 so we should not expect big runs.

Match odds
Bangladesh are too short for a win which will see them qualify for the knockout stages. As we said against England we wanted around [6.00] and this time again we can only get [5.00].

The hosts only become value if the toss goes their way. In the last 22 matches (two years) on this ground, 15 have been won by the side fielding first. This bias is not exclusive to day-night games.

But Bangladesh will also have to expose South Africa's weakness against spin. Ireland almost managed it, India did but then let them off the hook but England did it superbly.
Of course Bangladesh have done it before, beating the Proteas in the 2007 World Cup.

Top batsman - Bangladesh
Imrul Kayes (184 runs) and Tamim Iqbal (152 runs) have been among the runs. Kayes is [6.00] and Tamim [4.00]. Shakib-al-Hasan is underrated at [6.00].

Top batsman - South Africa
AB de Villers (318 runs), Hashim Amla (248) and JP Duminy (204) are the top men. AB is [5.00], Amla [4.00] and Duminy [6.00].

Featured market
Graeme Smith is having a poor tournament with 110 runs in five digs. You might be able to lay him for a 50 at around [3.00].

Best bet: back Bangladesh @ [5.00] if they bowl first

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