Match Previews / Ed Hawkins / 18 March 2011 /

Ed Hawkins reckons Shahid Afridi's men are the value to end Australia's remarkable World Cup run. Follow him on Twitter here

London start time: 09.00

Team news
The build-up to this contest, at least on the Pakistan side, has been dominated by the irrelevant news that Shoaib Akhtar, a menace to batsmen and the game in general, will retire at the end of the tournament.

Shoaib might not play with the fitter and younger Wahab Riaz expected to get the nod. Otherwise Umar Akmal is fit again.

Ahmed Shehzad - 51 runs in five innings - will probably be dropped meaning the well-organised Asad Shafiq retains his place. Watch out for Kamran Akmal moving up to open with Mohammad Hafeez.

Australia resisted the temptation to rest key men against Canada and give squad players a run out so they should be unchanged.

Venue and conditions
The key stat to know about the RPS in Colombo is the heavy toss bias. In the last five years only five sides from 22 matches have won chasing. This is because the pitch is slow and low, enabling spinners to easily build pressure. There is rain around, though (see featured market).

Match odds
We want to back Pakistan in an encounter which is far from meaningless - the winner could top the group allowing them to play a weak opponent from group B in the quarters. But before doing so there is a lot to consider.

For a start, the toss bias makes them a great wager if they bat first. But the weather forecast - which could mean the side batting second have the easier task of chasing a total in only 20 overs or so - hardly makes that a cast-iron strategy.

It is frustrating because Pakistan are perfectly equipped on the surface at the RPS to end Australia's 34-game unbeaten run in World Cups. Australia have been untested in the tournament so far and there is a decent chance that even if Pakistan have to chase, they could be found out.

The conclusion we should draw, however, is that Pakistan are too big, regardless of the permutations. Back them.

Top batsman - Australia
Shane Watson (256 runs), Brad Haddin (237) and Michael Clarke (191) are [4.00], [5.00] and [5.00] respectively.

Top batsman - Pakistan
Misbah-ul-haq (192 runs), Umar Akmal (167) and Younis Khan(141 runs) are Pakistan's top performers. Any Other is probably the smart call at [4.50] because Shehzad, who is unlikely to play, gets solo billing. Kamran Akmal, an opening bat possibility, will run for you.

Featured market
There are thunderstorms forecast (expected to arrive around lunch Colombo time) so we may not get much play. With that in mind, and a first-innings average of 252 in the last 10 ODIs at the RPS, don't go nuts on first-innings runs wagers.

Best bet: back Pakistan @ [2.66] to beat Australia

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