County Cricket / The Betfair Contrarian / 08 April 2010 /

Nevermind the IPL, The Contrarian has a place in his heart for county cricket and is enamoured by the profit-making opportunities it provides, the latest being to back against reigning champions and [2.54] favourites Durham ahead of the new season, which starts on Friday.

No county ever wins three in a row

Not since Yorkshire between 1966 and 1968 has anybody won three successive County Championships and it's not for want of trying. There have been seven occasions since not including Durham's current run where a team have won two in a row before being overhauled.

Durham are getting on a bit

Eight Durham players are now in their 30s, including some of their main men such as Michael Di Venuto, Dale Benkenstein, Paul Collingwood and Steve Harmison. Three successive titles is hard enough to achieve the last county to attempt it, Sussex, came sixth in 2008 without attempting to do it with an ageing spine. The increased likelihood of fitness and injury problems means more fiddling with the team, and there is the additional inconvenience of some being called upon to represent their countries.

Durham will crumble once their unbeaten run ends

Before Durham did it last year, Warwickshire were the last county to complete an unbeaten season, in 2004. However, Warwickshire finished fourth in 2005, despite starting strongly, because once reacquainted with the taste of defeat, they couldn't wash it down, suffering two more in the five games that followed the first, and five by the seasons end. The post-unbeaten run slump is a trend that exists in all sports; think of the New England Patriots failure to make the play-offs in 2008 after going to the Super Bowl unbeaten a year before, or Arsenal's five losses in the season that followed their invincibles year. The cure is another defeat-free campaign, but that's almost unthinkable.

The fixture list hasn't been too kind

With an early loss likely to prove traumatic for Durham, they needed the fixture list to be kind but it hasn't. Whereas in 2009 they didn't have to face either promoted club until mid-June, two months into the season, by which point the new teams winning mentality, momentum and determination to make an early statement is on the wane, they face both Essex and Kent in their first four games, with their opener against Essex, who were last in the top-flight in 2003, sure to be particularly keenly fought. Their second match is even harder, as they face Hampshire, the team Betfair punters rate their closest challengers at [6.8].

Somerset get better every season

As Somerset are [11.5], its clear that many expect the retirement of Justin Langer to stifle their threat, but they've made huge strides in recent seasons and are always improving. They finished bottom of the second-tier in 2006, but the following year they came top, then in 2008 they marked their top-flight return with fourth place, before proving it wasn't a fluke by coming third and losing just once last season. In Marcus Trescothick, they had 2009's leading Division One run-scorer and, as their only current England international is wicket keeper Craig Kieswetter, who has played just one ODI, they should suffer fewer international disruptions than their rivals (which could prove key in a season where the Test and ODI calendar promises plenty of intrusion) handing them a realistic chance of becoming the third first-time winners in eight years.

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