Bat and ball / Paul Moon / 07 August 2009 /

With the news that Andrew Flintoff isn't fit enough to turn out for England at Headingley, Paul Moon considers who should come in for the big Lancastrian as well as how Ricky Ponting should shuffle his own pack.

The phrase 'sitting on the horns of a dilemma' has never been more apt concerning an England and Australian Test match. Both teams are agonising over team permutations ahead of the fourth Test at Headingley because of injury and poor form.

It is hard to remember a time when picking the definitive team had so much resting on it. Do the sides risk going into the game carrying an injured or out-of-form player or do they compromise downwards? With the teams so evenly matched a selection howler could determine the custodianship of the Ashes.

It is imperative that the England bowlers turn up fresh for work on Friday, particularly if they have to bowl first. Back-to-back Tests have a habit of exposing tired limbs and with the weather forecast looking reasonably good this could be the key factor in the game.

Andrew Flintoff has been ruled out of this match with injury. In the Edgbaston Test he took no wickets in 30-overs and only bowled 10-overs on the final day when England were pushing for a result so maybe they won't miss him as much as some people are making out, despite him being the hero at Lord's.

His absence significantly weakens the bowling and affects the balance to the batting line up so Jonathan Trott has been drafted in for cover. One imagines a long discussion took place about the poor form of Broad and Swann (ironically both have taken 6 wickets at 57.70) and whether left-arm quick Sidebottom should play.

Headingley is synonymous for swing and seam bowling so, should Trott play, it is possible that England could play six batsmen and four quickies. In fact that would be my team with Collingwood dropping to number six. Of course Anderson and Onions must play while those clamouring for a return of Harmison should be reminded of his lack of mental strength then ignored.

Talking of the Headingley pitch I was particularly interested in what my colleague had to say: https://betting.betfair.com/cricket/2009-ashes/ashes-fourth-test-betting-the-myth-of-fortress-hea-050809.html and confess to being surprised by his findings.

The main difference for this match is that both teams view the pending result differently. Australia must win if Ponting is to realise his dream of winning an Ashes series on English soil while it would not be the end of the world if the home nation secured a draw.

Currently momentum and initiative favour the Australians but they have their own problems. A technical error at the point of his bowling delivery is making Johnson ineffective and he remains the biggest cause of concern. Despite that, he remains a potential match winner and cannot be dropped.

The place of Nathan Hauritz is however under threat. Ponting conceded that though he likes a spinner in his side, Headingley was one of the few Test venues where four quicks could be justified. My guess is that accurate seamer Stuart Clark will take the place of the spinner and the fit but undercooked Brett Lee will be saved for The Oval.

Brad Haddin is being rushed back after fracturing a finger and eight days is not really enough time while Michael Clarke is struggling to recover from his stomach strain. They are both doubts for this game but this is the Ashes. I expect them to be risked because of the lack of batting within the Australian squad.

Expect England to be nervous about crossing the finishing line especially without Pietersen and Flintoff as the Australians are beginning to display resilience. If the pitch is good and the conditions are not conducive to swing it is hard to see England bowling the Aussies out twice. The toss of course is vital. Latest Betfair prices for the biggest match of the series so far includes England [4.6] Australia [2.48] Draw [2.52].

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