The weather is fair, Andrew Flintoff is fired up and England believe a win is firmly in their sights.Test cricket is never that simple but whatever happens, we've got a cracking day of action on our hands. To talk us through it, we give you: Ed Hawkins. Email him at hawkeyeview@hotmail.co.uk

18.00 MATCH DRAWN
Phew! That went on a bit eh? Michael Clarke finally got his century and finished as Australia's top runscorer in that innings. They look very happy with this stalemate. Just as well they might because they were staring Ashes oblivion in the face at lunch. Surely, there would have been no way back from 2-0 down.

We now roll on to Headingley for the start of the fourth Test. All eyes will be on Andrew Flintoff's knee, which will make for a rather dull interim I would imagine. If he isn't fit, England look mighty vulnerable given the two winning positions they have in this series were both inspired by him.

It could swing in Leeds, though. And Australia must find a way to combat Anderson and Onions. Here are the series prices: England are [1.90]. Australia [6.40] and the draw is [3.10]. Be good. See you on Friday.

17.08 Aus 342-4
Tsk! North (96) has a 10-run lead over Clarke. Bloody typical. Our man needs to speed up because we could only have another 25 minutes left.

16.44 Aus 299-4, lead by 186
Michael Clarke has opened up an 11-run lead over Marcus North for top Australia second-innings runscorer. We don't like to blow our own trumpet here but you should have backed him to do so. At 19.09 yesterday we told you he was a decent wager. If Clarke holds on we would have successfully tipped each of the three top runscorers in this game. That hasn't happened on this site before. History in the making, folks. That's one good reason to stay tuned.

16.30 Aus 293-4, lead by 180
We've had tea. I think some crumbs from my biscuits got into the keyboard because I was unable to log on for a bit there. Anyway, we're back. There are 32 overs left tonight. I wonder when it will be called a draw? In ten overs? Can they do that? Does anyone now actually care?

15.42 Aus 266-4, lead by 153
To give you an idea about how well Michael Clarke and Marcus North have batted, who both have 50s by the way, this is the highest partnership of the match. Clarke has played and missed three times. North just once. Meanwhile, Benjamin has emailed suggested I change my profile picture to this. I hope it's not because he thinks I'm talking out of my Bottom.

15.26 Aus 255-4, lead by 142
This is England's last chance. They have to take these last six wickets in no more than 20 overs otherwise it will remain 1-0. Stranger things have happened. Who remembers that Test against Sri Lanka at Old Trafford in 2002? No? Okay, I'll refresh for you. It was a stone bonking draw - where did this phrase originate from? - until England got the new ball in the third innings. Sri Lanka went from 263-4 to 308 all out and England had to chase 50 in six overs. They did it with an over to spare. Here's the scorecard.

15.15 Aus 251-4, lead by 138 runs
One of the main roles of this blog is to try to educate in terms of what value is or isn't when it comes to your money. We've tried various analogies, historical references, statistics and more convuluted mathematical theorem. But I have never seen a better way of illustrating what value ISN'T than this. England have taken the new ball.

15.07 Aus 245-4, lead by 132 runs
One over to go before the new ball before England snatch the new ball like a smack addict needing ... just ... one ... more ... hit. What a dark analogy.

14.49 Aus 230-4, lead by 117
Michael Clarke has made a mistake. He chipped a catch to Andrew Strauss of Ravi Bopara, of all people, but skip dropped it. The sight of Bopara bowling suggests England's hopes are done for and they have drifted to [38.00] But Mike Atherton has just reminded everyone that Australia's position remains perilous. Indeed. Two quick wickets and they would be right back in the brown stuff.

14.16 Aus 219-4, lead by 106
Yesterday I went on a bit of a rant about the yobbish behaviour of the Edgbaston crowd, who disgracefully booed one of the great batsmen of our time - Ricky Ponting. I speculated on the reasons for their loutishness and completely forgot to include alcohol. How remiss. It has to be a huge factor, particularly when you consider that a local councillor wrote in a blog how best supporters could smuggle alcohol past security. Bob Piper suggested filling a tea flask with Guiness. He was cricicised by Drinkaware. "It wassssh only a joke," said Bob. "I didn't expect people to take it serioussshly." Of course he wasn't really slurring his words. I just made that bit up. Sorry Bob.

14.29 Aus 214-4, lead by 101 runs
Defiant stuff from Michael Clarke. He has looked a cracking player in this innings and, of course, at Lord's. England are being inventive to get him out. They have a short extra cover and short midwicket. He did hit uppishly through the covers after lunch so the plan is rooted in common sense. England a whopping [18.50]. A wicket collapses that but I've seen nothing since lunch to suggest one is on its way. England need Clarke or North to make a rick. Alternatively, they should try to plug the runs that are coming. Bowl negatively. Push it out real wide. And then go hell for leather with the new ball in 10 overs.

14.10 Aus 199-4, lead by 86 runs
Not much happening. The ball isn't swing. Michael Clarke has had more fretful afternoon snoozes than this. Marcus North could wake everyone from their slumber, though. Don't forget his injudicious shot in the first dig. Graeme Swann is going to come on now and have a go. Solid move that. Immediately he gets some turn.

13.55 Aus 188-4, lead by 75
If I may be so bold as to remove my betting hat and replace it with one stitched 'purist', do we really want England to go 2-0 up? Of course not. It would be the greatest anti-climax since the chap who thought he was the world's finest lover only to be told his wife had asthma. The series will be as good as over if England win this, rendering Headingley, which starts on Friday, and The Oval, virtually meaningless. Cue vitriolic emails from England supporters.

13.41 Aus 172-4, lead by 59
There are 69 scheduled overs left. England could be one wicket away from running through this Australia side. There really isn't much left. After Graham Manou it is Mitchell Johnson and his cavalier style is not exactly what the situation demands. England are [5.80]. If you ask me, and I guess you're probably interested in what I reckon given you're reading this, I think England are going to win.

LUNCH 13.02 Aus 172-4, lead by 59
England back out to [5.80] at lunch. Goodness me the price moves so quickly. Plenty for England to be hopeful for. They are only one wicket away from Graham Manou on Test debut. It's not England's session, though according to the market. They have drifted from the start of play.

WICKET 12.46 Aus 163-4, lead by 50
Massive strike for England. Mike Hussey has fallen lamely to Stuart Broad, edging behind. And England are right back into the game to prove that the quick drift their price suffers is again out of line with the match situation. In they come to [4.60].

12.53 Aus 160-3, lead by 47
I've crunched some numbers quickly. There are 75 overs left. If Australia bat for 40 of them, they are pretty much safe. If they kept going at their run rate of 3.14, they would have a lead of 172. Knock off five overs for the innings change and that would mean England would have to score at 5.7 an over. Difficult indeed. England are now [9.80]

12.24 Aus 147-3, lead by 34
I've had my first email of the day. And it may well be the most intelligent I've had for the duration of the Test (possibly the series), although bear in mind that it only had to beat "stick a rocket under their arse" from TB on day two. Lucy F-P says: "I still don't really know enough about cricket to say anything insightful. I do know about meteorology, though. At the beginning of the weekend, two occluded fronts were moving east and were expected to bring steady rain overnight last night and today, but they decayed during yesterday and dumped the rest of their rain over Ireland. In defence of the Met Office, weather systems are about as reliable as England batsmen." I don't know, comparing weather sorts and England willowmen for dependability seems pretty insightful to me.

12.14 Aus 145-3, lead by 32
Michael Clarke is the new batsman. He joins Mike Hussey to form a stellar pairing for such a situation. But if England break it quickly, my word they are in worth a shout. Clarke has proved to be difficult to remove in such circumstances. His 313-minute 136 in the final innings at Lord's was a real 'thou shall shall not pass' effort. Interestingly, Watson TV fell immediately after drinks. A loss of concentration? Probably because the delivery which got him just went straight on.

WICKET 12.08 Aus 137-3, lead by 24
There you go. Watson TV is on the blink. James Anderson has done the trick. He's made Australia's opener drive loosely and edge behind to Matt Prior. England into [5.00] with that wicket. There's profit in that.

12.00 Aus 124-2, lead by 12
England's price is about to double to [8.00] from this morning. It is the kind of move we were discussing earlier; an inexorable drift towards oblivion. But it is possibly too quick. Sure, England are yet to get a breakthrough but Shane Watson TV and Mike Hussey have a run rate of only just over two an over. That suggests things are far from plain sailing. Andrew Flintoff is about to come out of the attack. That should bring in James Anderson. Can he swing it? Have a bit of that [8.00] in case he does.

11.40 Aus 112-2, trail by one run
So if we know what Australia need to do, what about England? Well, obviously they need another eight wickets but they need them in a certain amount of time. In the last five third-innings at Edgbaston, a wicket falls on average every 7.5 overs. Intriguingly, if that trend is repeated it will take England close to 60 overs (see previous post if you're not sure why we find this so fascinating). Some swing would speed up the process. We are at the 36-over mark now, which has been the prime time for bend. In Australia's first-innings it started moving prodigiously at about the 30-over mark. Nothing so far for the hosts, though.

11.26 Aus 105-2, trail by 8 runs
Mitchell Johnson ain't the brightest. Hardly a surprise though for a guy who has bowled with all the accuracy of David Blunkett at a shooting range and has an over-bite that could open cans of beans from 50 paces. Asked how long Australia needed to bat to be safe he said: "Er ... aw look, I don't know." So for Mitchell's benefit (and yours), we reckon about 60 overs. At three runs an over that would give them a lead of about 160-odd which should be enough. That would mean England would have to score at about five an over for 33 overs. A tough ask in Test conditions.

11.20 Aus 99-2, trail by 12
We have been in this situation on the last day many times before with England. Either they have been under pressure with the bat (Cardiff) or they have been desperate for quick wickets (Antigua, Trinidad). So we know exactly how the market moves. As wicketless overs are notched off, so England's price drifts out and the draw comes in. To have a successful punting day on ones like this, we need to be proactive rather than reactive. Take the bigger prices available to trade because when a wicket does fall or Australia's batsmen look comfy for 20 minutes or so, there will be huge movement. For example, a wicket now for England at [5.10] and they will come in to about [3.80]. And if they manage three wickets in this morning session, it is likely that the draw and an England win will both be hovering around the [2.00] mark.

11.07 Aus 91-2, trail by 22 runs
From the weather forecasters who brought you 'Storm? What Great Storm?' and 'Barbecue Summer 2009' we have another blockbuster of a balls-up. There are bright and sunny skies above Edgbaston for the final day of this enthralling Test. So what happened to the rain which was expected until at least 15.00? I don't know. I'm no meteorologist. But I do know how to use the internet and our weather radar shows that we should get the full compliment of 96 overs. It could be the pivotal day of the series. IF England take these remaining eight wickets, the urn is as good as theirs with two play. If not, Australia are still alive for Headingley on Friday. Here are the prices: England [4.20], the draw [1.35] and Australia, yawn, [65.00].

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