The weather forecast is not good for Cardiff but Ed Hawkins is keeping his fingers crossed the rain stays away. Email him at hawkeyeview@hotmail.co.uk

17.49 Eng 20-2 CLOSE
Play has been abandoned for the day. Tomorrow England must bat for the majority of it to avoid going 1-0 down. They are [2.20] to fail. Join me for an exciting finish.

16.51 Eng 20-2 RAIN
Today's excitement rather hindered our progress in developing an unhealthy obsession with Sky weather girl Lucy Verasamy. Fear not, though, we're back on track with this collection. I expect she has found today's weather radar chat on this blog absolutely fascinating.

16.19 Eng 20-2 RAIN
Cardiff is officially the wettest Test ground in the UK. It is the one negative for their bigwigs that as soon as they became a Test ground, they were given that unwanted tag. Still, the ground is not as wet as it used to be. That's because new drainage has been built. It had to be done. Previously it only had to threaten to rain and there wouldn't be play for days. Last summer in a game against Worcestershire it rained before the start of play and despite the sun coming out for three days, not a ball was bowled. They will be ready to boast about their excellent drainage at Cardiff tomorrow. Word of warning, though. When it rains in Wales, it tends not to stop. In Championship matches this summer, about four days have been lost to rain.

16.05 Eng 20-2 RAIN
We have rain. The players have not emerged after tea and the weather radar suggests that could be it for the day. England will be mighty relieved. But there is a possible 90-odd overs available tomorrow and the skies are clear. Already two down, England remain in almighty peril. That is why were seeing the draw price and Australia's price trading pounches, if you will. Currently the stalemate is [1.84] and Australia are [2.18].

TEA 15.44 Eng 20-2
That's tea. England are in a hole but they could be saved, finally, by the weather. But only for today. It is starting to look gloomy, spots of rain are falling and the covers have come on. Australia are [2.40] and the draw is [1.72].

15.40 Eng 18-2
There is a spanner in the works. The floodlights are on and although you could be forgiven that takes bad light out of the equation, it doesn't. Australia took an offer from the light yesterday when playing underneath the beam. So there is potential for the umps to still get their light meters out and if their reading is the same, or worse, then the light will be offered to England.

WICKET 15.33 Eng 17-2
Bopara gone! Leg before to Hilfenhaus. It looks far too high to me but frankly, we don't care. And we've has a big a market move as you're ever likely to see. On the match odds Australia and the draw can barely be split, trading at [2.02] and [1.99] respectively.

WICKET 15.27 Eng 13-1
Alastair Cool lbw b Johnson 6. England in trouble. And it was just what we're after. Australia, after drifting to [3.20], have come back to [2.74]. It brings Ravi Bopara to the crease. he said he was nervous in the first-innings. That probably doesn't cover it for how he feels at the moment.

15.10 Eng 0-0
Australia are going to charge in here at England. There is huge pressure on openers Alastair Cook and Andrew Strauss. Sure, the pitch still looks pretty good but it is difficult to legislate for the effect that needing to bat, bat and bat some more to save the game will have. However, let's not forget the rain. Our radar says that it should arrive at 17.00. With that in mind, time to plan our next wager. We want wickets for Australia so we can use our weather knowledge to trade the draw. We have already taken profit on Australia but we need to get the other 'result' on our side, too. That's what cricket betting is about folks.

14.59 Aus 674-6d
There is the declaration and down Australia came to [2.74]. Time to lay off our earlier wager. We don't think it is going to rain until 16.45 or 17.00 so England have a nasty storm to weather here. Ricky Ponting appears to have got the declaration spot on following Haddin's demise. They lead by 239.

14.47 Aus 662-5
Goodness me Australia are [2.90]! A 4-6 combo from Haddin, who has gone to his century, shortens them up again and one has to wonder what they will be when the declaration comes. One can't help but think that if England (ha!) were in this situation then there would be a clamour in the comm box to get Australia into bat. Certainly Ricky Ponting does not want to overdo this. The psychological damage has been done, the runs are on the board and all Australia need is a bit more time. That is in their hands, too if they get this call right. Come on Ricky, you can't possibly lose. As a Punter you should know that.

14.31 Aus 645-5
JC has been on the email. "I saved you the trouble of checking the tv guide ... there's a coronation street omnibus on at 11am tomorrow morning on ITV1. Suggest you tune into that instead of the cricket."

14.28 Aus 643-5
Weather update. It looks as though Australia have until 17.00 now before the rain arrives. Haddin and North are being slightly more circumspect. Haddin needs four for a ton. Australia six for a whopping 650. Will a declaration follow?

14.16 Aus 628-5
Australia scoring runs at will. Marcus North is itching to tee off. And all the while that Australia price is shrinking. But imagine the dip it will take when the declaration comes. They are [3.15] now and we already know that the market is not a proactive one. Could they really go as short as sub [2.80] if they put England in? I would suggest now that would be far too skinny given they would still have to take 10 wickets and then, probably knock off some runs. And don't forget we still think the rain will arrive. For those of you who took our advice about backing Australia (see 12.32), the time to lay off will be the declaration point. Aus lead by 193 and Haddin needs 14 for a ton.

14.02 Aus 603-5
Australia's price continues to head south. Three boundaries from Haddin just now saw it dip to [3.35]. As for the weather this predicted rain path suggest we should still be playing until 15 minutes after tea. Oooh, as I type Haddin has launched a six off Swann to go to 72. Could he be the fourth Aussie to get a ton?

13.52 Aus 581-5
So much for England protecting Andrew Flintoff. He is just about to bowl his 35th over, which is more than any other England bowler. If he is going to get through a similar workload each Test, then it is hard to see how he will be able to last the full series. He is currently available to back at [2.92] for top England series bowler, which has to be one of the worst prices ever seen.

13.42 Aus 577-5
A big drop in price for Australia. From [4.20] to [3.65] as it dawns on punters that there has been no rain. Expect Australia to cut loose here. Quick runs and then a declaration will see Australia's price slump again. If they are to win this game they need to put time back into the game so really there is little point in anything other than 20-minute blast.

LUNCH 13.05 Aus 577-5
Australia are on a victory charge with Marcus North, who has a debut Ashes century, and Brad Haddin, 50, looking to push on for a declaration. We are with Australia thanks to the rain being delayed until after 15.00. The prospect of Australia sticking the hosts in and picking up early wickets has us salivating. Their price would go through the floor if that happened. It will shorten with a declaration, too because Australia need to pout time back into the game. At the start of the day Simon Katich said Australia were looking for a lead of 150. They lead by 141. A 20-minute slogfest after sandwiches will be right up our alley.

12.50 Aus 564-5
England have taken the new ball. Slightly surprised about that because wickets are irrelevant now and their spinners were doing a decent job of keeping Marcus North and Brad Haddin quiet. Still, the likelihood of a wicket has just increased. Andrew Flintoff has the rock, North is 7 from his first Ashes century. We're keeping our fingers crossed that the Aussie pair wioll relish the ball coming on to the bat a bit more and they can plunder some quick runs.

12.40 Aus 550-5
This is another view of the forecast. It suggest we should be clear of rain until about 15.30. By which time we should be able to have a lay of that previous Australia bet.

12.32 Aus 541-5
I have a fancy weather radar tool which I would like to share with you all here. I've set it on a 24-hour loop and by my reckoning that huge band of rain which you can see heading towards Cardiff actually peters out and disappears by this afternoon. That makes Australia a bet at [4.70]. Get on if you have faith in the weathermen.

12.16 Aus 534-5
Monty Panesar is having a go at the moment. He is getting as much joy as I would if forced to watch back-to-back episodes of 'Corrie'. Having said that, I would dearly love to be one of those people who gets enjoyment out of soap operas. Their lives must be a constant riot, taking genuine delight at the most innoucuous of travails. "And I bought a pasty, and there were litlle bits of carrot in it. Amazing!" "The bus driver told me he had no change so let me travel for free. Result!" "Monty Panesar's coming onto bowl! He's such a character!"

12.04 Aus 526-5
One of the most wearisome trends of modern-day cricket is how players bat back questions with stupefying platitudes. Whatever happened to saying what they think? There were two such incidents this morning. Simon Katich was asked whether there were any surprises about England's bowling. In days of yore, and Ashes ones at that, the fair dinkum Aussie would have called it how it was. "Aw look mate, we were surprised they were so poor. They've been talking themselves up and they haven't produced." Instead Katich, momentarily let Australia's utter dominace and England's ineptitude slip his mind, and blustered about "England sticking to their task well". Then, Ottis Gibson, the England bowling coach, was asked whther England could still win. "Yes, we have to believe that." No. No you don't. Why not try rooting yourself in reality instead of treating the vieweing poublic like morons. It is worrying - although not altogether surprising given how his bowlers have bowled - that someone so high up in the ranks has the capacity to come out with such clap trap.

11.41 Aus 504-5
England, as is their right, have taken time out of the game by having a coffee morning chat between overs. They've been nattering away like washer women. They are just eating up overs to make that rain come a little quicker. Shame they can't put as much thought into their fielding. Had James Anderson bothered to get behind the stumps a couple of balls ago, he would have run out Brad Haddin. Odd isn't it how quickly the 'we're dead up for it' guff disperses when a side is on the receiving end of a tonking?

11.22 Aus 498-5
Can Australia win? Well, they need a lead of about 150 from what play they get today and then it will all be down to whether England implode under last-day pressure. Adelaide 2007 immeditaely springs to mind. The Aussies are probably thinking about it, too. Simon Katich, in interview this morning, said as much. There are no concerns about the pitch, though for England. It has not crumbled to produce uneven bounce because the sun has just not been fierce enough and only a psychological breakdown of Phil Spector proportions.

11.11 Aus 488-5
If you needed a better example of the match odds being reactive rather than proactive, take a look at Australia's price. It is [4.40] from [5.30] just ten minutes before the start. Anyone who saw the weather forecast on television or the web would have known we would get a couple of hours of play this morning. But seeing is believing for punters and until it happens, there is no shift. With that in mind we could be canny. If the market is not being proactive then it will not factor in rain at about 13.00. So at about 12.30 we can expect to take prices about Australia and the draw which will be markedly different when the heavens open.

10.50 Aus 479-5
Morning folks. So far the rain is holding off in Cardiff. God is an Australian. However, having watched the forecast on the goggle box last night we should expect rain by lunchtime. There is a huge band of rain set to hit the SWALEC at that time and it doesn't look as though there will be any let up until at least 04.00. Floodlights or no floodlights, even that is too late for play. The prices are England [130.00], Australia [5.30] and the draw [1.23].

Post a comment

Name:

Email Address:

URL:

Remember personal info?

Comment: