It was England's day yesterday with eight Australian wickets falling and the tourists now struggling just to avoid the follow-on. But a good night's sleep sometimes changes everything. Let's hope Ed Hawkins' live blogging doesn't send anyone to sleep...

18.29 Eng 311-6
England close at [1.47] to take the final session. They will probably declare after a few overs tomorrow morning for the reason outlined in (18.16). Australia (surely) cannot possibly win. Having said that, there will be monstrous overreactions on the match odds market if a pair put on 100 or so at the top of the order. Liekwise there will be trading opportunities on the draw. See you tomorrow.

18.16 Eng 302-5
It is quite gloomy at HQ but there is surely no danger of England coming off. They'll bat all of the remaining 13 overs, possibly at six an over which should give them a lead of 589. They won't declare overnight, though. Well, they shouldn't. Do it first thing because otherwise openers Simon Katich and Phil Hughes will be able to mentally prepare. Maybe even bat for five minutes tomorrow to really get up their noses.

18.00 Eng 276-5
Andrew Flintoff is batting with abandon, although it is unlikely that he has been asked to throw the bat to get England into a position to declare tonight. The light just isn't good enough one feels and Andrew Strauss would not risk stick Australia in only for the opening pair to run for cover as soon as they are offered the light.

WICKET 17.46 Eng 260-5
Matt Prior has been run out. Rather unlucky. A direct hit from the boundary as he came back for two. A blistering 61 from 42 balls. Andrew Flintoff will have a licence to thrill here.

17.37 Eng 246-4
Shane Warne is suggesting England really put their foot down, get to a lead of 550 tonight and then stick Australia in for a couple of overs. He is absolutely right. There are 20 overs left and with the current run rate above six it is within England's grasp. They won't do it, though. They'll bat for 30 minutes tomorrow to play safe completely ignoring the possibility that they could be wasting crucial overs to bowl out Australia. 50 for Matt Prior.

17.29 Eng 235-4
England lead by 440 runs. The most Australia have made in their Test history in the fourth innings is the 404-3 against England at Leeds in 1948. But really it is irrelevant what thyey are set. It is how long. Sorry to bang on about this but it is all that counts.

17.12 Eng 203-4
Nice acceleration from Collingwood and Prior. The run rate over the last 10 has gone up to 4.8 as England pass 200. They lead by 409. Another 10 runs and Australia will have to surpass the highest fourth innings chase to win a Test. I guess that perfectly puts into context why England need only to bat for the rest of the day.

WICKET 16.52 Eng 178-4
Kevin Pietersen's miserable stay at the crease has come to an end, caught at the wicket off Siddle. Australia cut slightly to [9.20] but England hold firm at [1.62]. KP scored 44 of the most painful runs you'll see. Matt Prior the new man. Australia will look to shape it into him to exploit the gap between bat and pad on the front foot. Another one straight away and Australia are into the game again. England lead by 388.

16.41 Eng 168-3
During the break Sirloin of Beef (who apparently knows KP quite well) strongly hinted that England's top batsman could miss the next Test due to this troublesome Achilles. He is certainly struggling with it, hobbling back and forth. It is not helping his timing, either because he is getting in awkward positions in the crease. Now, earlier we said he would score runs in this dig but this blog is big enough to accept that he has been mighty fortunate. If he goes to 50 (he has 43) it will be one of the worst Test 50s this blog has witnessed (and that includes every one from a Mr A Cook that we've had the misfortune to sit through).

WICKET 16.22 Aus 147-3
Ravi Bopara out to Nathan Hauritz, who has taken all three. Not bad for a bloke who couldn't turn a page at the start of the series. That won't perturb England. Indeed, they may well be delighted. Graeme Swann will fancy his chances if he can turn it as much. Paul Collingwood is at the crease now. A tricky time for England this because KP is subdued because of a lack of form and his Achilles injury while Collingwood was also fighting his perrenial technical problem of a closed bat face in the first dig.

16.07 Eng 133-2
England need to punch on. They cannot afford to be as ponderous for such a large chunk in this session. Their run rate in the last 10 overs is just 1.50. Not good enough. As for Australia, they have missed opportunities. But two are still at the crease. KP and Bopara have looked in horrible touch and it is not a exaggeration to say they look walking wickets.

TEA 15.46 Eng 130-2
England have not scored as they would have liked in that session. That would be to form in such situations (historically they are not positive enough), however it can be put down to KP and Bopara both being horribly out of nick. Australia, [11.50], take the session by virtue of being [15.50] at the start of it. England have drifted to [1.63] and the draw is [3.30]. England lead by 340.

15.24 Eng 124-2
As Mitchell Johnson runs in again, Portuguese Pirate says: I can only assume Ponting is bowling Johnson with a view to trying to restore some confidence in the bowler's own mind. But I don't see the point. He's leaking runs and not looking like taking wickets which is merely increasing Australia's chances of losing this match. As regards looking ahead to the next Test: if Brett Lee is fit he should take MJ's place, if not Stuart Clark should. Or if Ponting's insistent on keeping him in the team he has an extra week in the nets to work on his bowling. But there's no point in carrying on bowling him in this Test. Clarke and Katich should bowl the overs reserved for Johnson between them.

15.14 Eng 122-2
On the subject of Tina Arena, why did she decide to name herself after a venue? Granted Tina Stadium or Tina Amphitheatre do not have the same ring to it but I just think it's a bit odd, that's all.

15.05 Eng 120-2
Often Kevin Pietersen bats as if he is playing a tune in his head. His favourite is Ride Of The Valkyries (if you don't know what I'm talking about this should help). Today, however, he is batting to the beat of Tina Arena 's I'm In Chains. Well and truly shackled. He has just 19 from 50 balls. it is one of the reasons the draw is on the move, down to [3.50]. England's run rate is only 2.10 over the last 10 overs.

14.39 Eng 105-2
If I had a pound for every time that I've sat here blogging on a Test in the UK and the cameras have picked up John bloody Major in the crowd, I would ... well, er, I wouldn't be sat here now. I'd be in the Bahamas, or somewhere. It is becoming a dangerous obsession of Sky's to show us these 'celebrities'. I couldn't care less. Ordinarily they would zoom in one some chesty blonde (for many years you couldn't become a cameraman unless 'peeping tom' was listed on your CV under 'hobbies') but that policy seems to have discountinued. Oh, the good old days.

14.21 Eng 94-2
Australia are [7.50] thanks to the England pair looking so unsure. Remember we backed them at [8.80]? Gosh, another one here and we could trade it.

14.18 Eng 94-2
England should be four down. That they are not is down to Ponting's errors. The ball is swinging, though and both KP and Bopara look all over the shop. In four consecutive balls, KP made errors. There was the leg before, then he played and missed, got squared up and finally, he gloved into no man's land on the leg side.

14.12 Eng 93-2
Ponting has had a nightmare two minutes. First, he missed running out KP, who went for a wander on the leg before appeal and would have been out by yards, secondly he dropped a dolly at slip off Bopara.

14.08 Eng 88-2
Pietersen has 10 already. However, I've spotted something in his technique which makes me question my assertion that'll he score big here. He is very keen to cover his off stump. That means he is vulnerable to a leg before, playing on or getting bowled through the gate. He is trying to guard against late movement essentailly. As I type he has survived a huge appeal for lbw. But he got an inside edge.

WICKET 13.59 Eng 74-2
Wickets coming in clusters again. Strauss has fallen to hauritz but the price refuse to budge aside from Australia, who have come in a little to [9.50]. Kevin Pietersen in now. I strongly fancy him for runs here, folks. It is a very good batting wicket. He has already struck a four.

WICKET 13.46 Eng 61-1
Cook has gone leg before from his first ball after lunch. That is the third time he has been out in such a way in three innings. He was playing across the line. Jeez, when will he learn? Anyway, glad to see the back of him for 32 because there are more fluent batsmen to come. That wicket has not affected the market.

13.40 Eng 61-0
Strauss and Cook are back out. They went well before the break. they should do the same after it. However, with every easy runs they accumulate, doubt will creep in. 'If it is this easy, how many should we set them?' That is a probably irrelevant. The question is 'how long should we give ourselves to take 10 wickets?'

13.06 Eng 57-0 LUNCH
That's lunch and England take another session. They scored at a rapid 4.38 runs per over in their 13 overs. If they were to bat for the remaining 68 today at 4 an over, they would have a lead of 539 by the close. To you and I that is more than enough runs and gives them two days to bowl out Australia. Alas, captains (particularly English ones) rarely think like gamblers. England are [1.56], Australia [15.50} and the draw [3.30].

12.44 Eng 35-0
I fancy Kevin Pietersen for runs today. It is just the sort of situation he thrives in. He is [2.00] to score a 50. That is too short. However, the market is such that when he gets to 15 he'll be as skinny as [1.50]. There's profit in that for those with big funds.

12.29 Eng 17-0
If memory serves it was David Gower who said during England's tour of the Caribbean "if England are going to set West Indies 500 to win, how many will they set Australia to win in the summer? 600? 650?" England are [2.20] to score 350 runs or more in this second innings. They are [6.00] for 400 runs or more.

12.13 Eng 6-0
Australia's price, [8.80] has barely shifted since before play this morning. And that has to make them worth backing with a view to laying off. England have given them a sniff by not enforcing the follow on so they should have shortened slightly. If Australia were batting again then they would have been out of the game. No chance to win. But quick wickets, albeit unlikely on a flat surface, will see their price come right in. Value is our watchword and we have to take it when it's on offer.

12.09 Eng 0-0
It has been confirmed that England will bat again. So where does that leave this game? Well, common sense would dictate that England, who lead by 210, should bat for only a day, or just over, and end up setting Australia 500-odd. That would leave them around two days to take another 10 Australia wickets. However, common sense has not been a phrase associated with Andrew Strauss' captaincy in these situations. He consistently batted on far too long in the Caribbean and it cost his side the series. In St John's he set West Indies 503 in 128 overs. At the time, this blog said that was too many runs and too few overs. Sirloin of Beef has just made a good point regarding the weather, too - there are showers forecast for the next two days. England are [1.62], Australia [8.80] and the draw is [3.65].

WICKET 12.00 Aus 215
I reckon England are going to bat again. Strauss and Cook have raced off it would seem to get padded up.

11.56 Aus 214-9
Debate about why Andrew Flintoff is not bowling. Are they saving him for an onslaught when Australia miss the follow on target (12 needed)? Are they not too fussed about Australia reaching it? My money is on an injury and they don't want to aggravate it when his teammates should be more than capable of mopping up the tail.

11.51 Aus 208-9
Of course if England do have the opportunity to make Australia follow-on and they do not take it, it will be seen as hugely negative move. But the formbook suggests England are a negative side. Safety first was their mantra in the Caribbean, batting on too long in St John's and Port of Spain. Personally, I would prefer it if Australia batted again because this wicket is so good that they would surely score well. We could then have a lay of England as smoke comes off the scoreboard.

WICKET 11.39 Aus 196-9
Nathan Hauritz has gone, caught at slip of Onions. Australia need 30 to avoid the follow on. Those statistics below highlight why England will remain nervous and, perhaps why they won't be too fussed if Australia avoid it. Hell, England may not even enforce it.

11.26 Aus 184-8
England are as short as [1.67] for victory. But they are far from a bank-breaking bet. They have been as skinny before at Lord's and failed to win. Three times since 2006 they have bowled out the opposition cheaply in their first dig only to fail to take another 10 wickets. South Africa were dismissed for 247 last summer, India 201 in 2007 and Sri Lanka 192 in 2006. But when those sides batted again they prospered. South Africa made 393-3 in 167 overs in the third innings, India 282-9 in 96 in the fourth and Sri Lanka 537-9 in 199 in the fourth. New Zealand also denied the hosts with 269-6 in 82.2 in the third in 2008. It means England averaged a wicket every 20 overs in those games in the opposition's second innings.

11.03 Aus 156-8
So Australia need 70 to avoid the follow-on. Nathan Hauritz and Peter Siddle are the two who will have to score a fair chunk of that to get Australia there. Here are the prices: England [1.54], Australia [9.00] and the draw [4.00] We'll discuss the positive and negatives of England enforcing in due course

10.55 Aus 156-8
Ahoy! A sleepless night for me. Not because I've been worrying whether England would enforce the follow-on. A more traditional reason. Too much red wine. The result is a joyless, sombre, realistic personality at such an early hour. The best for successful punting. There should be plenty of opportunities today to make a profit, so stick around.

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