Ed Hawkins discovers that not all former Aussie Test players have over-inflated opinions of their team's chances against England

Damien Martyn and Dean Jones have little in common aside from both being fine former Australia Test batsmen. One is a quiet Queenslander, the other a brash Victorian who is never short of a boast. Unwittingly, the pair provided an example of the pitfalls of playing the correct score market for a Test series when both were asked for their prediction for the Ashes at a London hotel this week.

Of course both claimed Australia would win - citizenship is immediately revoked for any former player denouncing the Baggy Green - but one thought it would be closer than the other. No prizes for guessing who.

"Aw look mate, it's so hard to call but I'd go with 2-1 to Australia because our bowling is slightly better," whispered Martyn. "If the weather doesn't get involved it'll be five zip to us!" roared Jones.

They are different opinions which perfectly frame what counts when attempting to have a successful wager on the correct score. Logic and history are the kingmakers. Pomposity and downright foolishness the A-road to the workhouse.

Jones was probably playing to the crowd, some of whom you fear may have been sucked in by his overconfidence and logged straight onto Betfair to avail themselves of some of the [14.00] that is available on Australia "five zip!". Of the 21 possible permutations, a 5-0 humiliation for England is the fifth favourite. In reality it is far less likely than the odds would have you believe.

England, who are [3.55] outsiders to regain the urn, are nothing if not tricky to beat at home. In series of two-Tests or more, they have failed to win at least one Test in only one of their last 22 series. Aside from the 5-0 reverse in Australia last time - the only previous whitewash in five-Test contests between the two was in 1920 by Australia's Invincibles - England had won at least one Test in the previous seven Ashes meetings.

So logic dictates that it would be wrong not to believe England will win a Test, especially if you further push the envelope by looking at Australia's win-loss ratio since Glenn McGrath, Shane Warne and Justin Langer retired. They average a loss every three-and-a-half Tests.

With England on the board and this column having already decided here Australia will be celebrating come August, then the next step is to look at the individual venues for clues for where they could be denied.

There has been much hype about Cardiff's Sophia Gardens, which hosts game one from July 8, taking spin which would appear to give England an advantage. As usual, however, the evidence is not that compelling. In County Championship cricket there this season only 21% of wickets have fallen to spinners and three matches have yet to produce a result.

Throw in worries about the Welsh weather - we have to factor in the possibility of rain taking away vital overs even if we are not trained weather men - and two sides playing nervous cricket could produce stalemate.

Lord's should produce an Australia victory because of their incredible record of only five defeats in 33 visits while Edgbaston is England's fortress and they should always be half-a-point shorter with the raucous Birmingham support behind them.

Headingley, venue for the fourth Test, is the puzzler. England are expected to do well there because of the reputation for swing. In fact, it is their second least successful home ground. With James Anderson being the most dangerous swing bowler England have produced for years, that could be about to change while the ability of Mitchell Johnson and Peter Siddle to move the ball should not be forgotten. And then there's the Yorkshire weather.

The Oval will always evoke memories of the 2005 draw, as thrilling as a no result as you will ever witness. It is hard, flat and full of runs and one side could well have the opportunity to bat the other out of the series.

As Martyn said, it's "hard to call" but 2-1 and 3-1 Australia both at [9.20] look the judgement calls. And if you want to keep England on your side, the [12.00] about a repeat 2-1 scoreline is the only value about Andrew Strauss' side on this market.

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