Ed Hawkins analyses the top bat and top bowler markets for England as they prepare to take on Australia in the five-Test series

There are many questions punters must ask themselves when preparing to bet on an eagerly-anticipated Ashes series. Which side is more likely to take 20 wickets? Do Australia really have a weakness against spin? Have England been flattered by their recent series victory over West Indies? No doubt they will be discussed and debated with fervour. So too should this one: is Kevin Pietersen a bad favourite to be top England runscorer?

KP is currently trading at [3.80] to outscore his teammates over five Tests. It is a price which is short enough on reputation alone. Pietersen bestrides the biggest of stages with hips swinging in a cocky swagger that would knock off friend and foe alike from the apron had his cumbersome ego not got there first. It can be a hypnotic sight and trance-like, one can often place your hard-earned on him to do the business.

The problem with Pietersen too often recently that cash that you felt was in the safest possible of switch-hit hands has gone down the drain. Pietersen has failed to top score in four of England's last five Test series. He didn't even make the top three earlier this summer against West Indies.

It is hardly a great record for such a short-priced favourite and one cannot but feel that instead of Pietersen charging bull-like out to the crease as if he is the second coming, he would be better placed treading more carefully.

The worry we have with Pietersen's price, however, is the very thing that makes it so appealing. It is the ego which has got him in to trouble in the past (remember him throwing his wicket away when a century was there for the taking in Kingston in February) and it is his ego which could steer him clear in the Ashes.

When it counts, Pietersen is the man. In his first series, the 2005 Ashes, he memorably top scored. He repeated the trick Down Under when all around him batsmen were losing their heads. And against South Africa last summer, he didn't disappoint notching nearly 100 runs more than any other Englishman.

The conclusion you should be drawing is that to back Pietersen would be doing so on emotional grounds - never the shrewdest of moves. For that reason Ravi Bopara could be the value at [5.10]. He has that all-important braggadocio but more importantly he might just have the composure that Pietersen can crucially lack.

Bopara top-scored against West Indies last time and if you cast your mind back farther you should recall him scoring a precocious 135 against the Australians at Chelmsford in 2005.

Andrew Strauss, with three first-place finishes in England's last five series deserves respect at [4.80] while those wanting a batsman to trade should seriously consider Matt Prior at a whopping [18.50].

If Pietersen is a dubious jolly for top batsman, there are no such question marks over James Anderson who heads this market at [3.55]. His ability to swing the ball both ways at 90mph is absolutely crucial to the home side's chances in the series because of Australia's weakness against swing. This is not perceived. They struggled with it in 2005 and there are enough survivors from that batting order (Katich, Clarke, Ponting) to give Anderson optimism.

Stuart Broad, third favourite at [4.90], would be next best for the simple reason that over the last 12 months his strike of 66.3 is actually superior to Anderson's (67.6). Broad, a smart bowler, has made the top three England wicket-takers in the last two series.

Bad value comes in the form of Graeme Swann at [4.50]. Yes he could trouble a potential Aussie top order of four left-handers (Hughes, Katich, M Hussey, North) but there is precious little evidence they have a weakness against orthodox spin. Awful value is Andrew Flintoff at [5.60]. It would be a major surprise if he is fit enough to play all five Tests. And on that note, you do know that KP is having trouble with his Achilles don't you?

Post a comment

Name:

Email Address:

URL:

Remember personal info?

Comment: