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Ashes Betting: It's a marathon, not a sprint

England Cricket RSS / Ed Hawkins / 28 July 2009 / Leave a comment

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Ed Hawkins runs the rule over the series outright, correct score and top runscorer markets to prove that much remains in the balance in the battle for supremacy between England and Australia

The Ashes are a marathon, not a sprint. After the initial burst out of the blocks, England have their noses in front but with only 10 days out of a potential 25 completed it would be fair to reckon that Australia still have time to hit their stride.

Certainly, if this was a race England would be beginning to tire, their action loose and clunky while Australia, head down after being clipped early, beginning to look strong and purposeful.

With Kevin Pietersen having hobbled from the circuit and Andrew Flintoff seemingly destined to join him before the final three Tests are out, backing England at [2.26] to win the series would be the epitome of bad value. Their price has hit 'the wall', if you will.

Australia, despite being 1-0 down, are in a much healthier state as they prepare for the third Test at Edgbaston on Thursday. Shane Watson is fit and ready to bolster their batting - at the expense of the hopeless Phil Hughes - not to mention to provide a useful extra bowling option while Stuart Clark should take the new ball in place of either Mitchell Johnson or Peter Siddle, Brett Lee, too is on his way back and should be back in time for the pivotal fourth Test at Headingley.

It makes Ricky Ponting's side the only wager to have on the series outright market at [3.50]. Of course, historically, Ashes series are won by the side which takes a lead although recent memory provides more impetus for siding with the tourists.

In 1997 Australia came from behind after losing at Edgbaston, and drawing the next Test, to have the series sewn up before the final rubber. And surely you don't need reminding of what happened in 2005?

Pietersen's loss is a hefty blow to England for two reasons. Firstly, he has scored the bulk of runs against Australia in the previous two series (he was England's top runscorer in each of them) and secondly, they have lost a player who Ponting and co genuine feared.

Which batsman in England's top six do Australia now fret about taking a game away from them? The answer is none. Throw in Flintoff's apparent obsession to push his body to the brink - even if he survives back-to-back Tests at Edgbaston and Headingley his performance level must surely drop - and England have never held such a flimsy advantage.

An expected Australia resurgence provides tantalising value on the correct score market. This column recommended a 2-1 victory for Australia at the start of the series and it has seen little to change its opinion. Many agree given with 2-1 Australia shorter now at [5.30] than it was before a ball had been bowled.

Indeed, pipping 1-1, at [5.50], it is the market favourite. A 2-1 England victory is [5.70]. A 3-1 Australia victory, at [14.50] would be a stretch for the imagination. Edgbaston is a result wicket but we must factor in potential rain delays at Headingley and a flat surface at The Oval (two draws in the last four) which could allow the leading team the opportunity to bat the other out of the series.

If the lead is to change hands then that is nothing compared to the probable flip flops we could see on the top runscorer markets.

Currently Andrew Strauss, with 240 runs, heads England's list and is as short as [1.90] to hold on with Paul Collingwood, [4.40] only 32 runs behind.
In England's last five series, the top batsman after early skirmishes has stayed top dog only twice - Ravi Bopara against West Indies earlier this summer and Strauss himself against India at the end of 2008.

What makes Strauss vulnerable is his record at the next three venues. He averages only 21 at Edgbaston, 38 at Headingley and 37 at The Oval. On pure numbers, opening partner Alastair Cook could catch him. He is 97 runs behind but has the best record at the three grounds than anyone in England's top six, averaging 47, 32 and 55 respectively.

Brad Haddin is the surprise leader for Australia with 229 runs from Michael Clarke (220), Ponting (190) and Simon Katich (176). The wicketkeeper is as big as [7.80] but he would buck a serious trend to oblige.

The top Australia batsman at the start of their last three contests has not been there at the end. Marcus North (v South Africa), Haddin (v South Africa) and Katich (v New Zealand) were all usurped. So perhaps the value could be Clarke at [3.55], second jolly to Ponting at [3.05].

All in all, this Ashes series is only just starting to warm up.

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