Forget World Twenty20, it's time to look at the serious business of the summer. Ed Hawkins has the lowdown on the the battle between England and Australia

When England beat Australia in the memorable summer of 2005 to win the Ashes for the first time in 18 years, joy was largely unconfined among the gambling fraternity. At last, after years of betting heats no warmer than gazpacho, the urn had turned. Alas, a 5-0 thumping Down Under followed for England to dampen hopes of more even contests and with the sides preparing to join battle again on July 8th at Cardiff for the first of five Tests, Australia are shorter now than they were before a ball had been bowled four years ago.

At prices around the [1.70] mark, there is more faith in this Australia side than the one which went off at [1.90] and included Glenn McGrath and Shane Warne. So why are England considered ready to burn at [3.60] when Australia have not only lost the two great architects of their fortress standing in the world game but Hayden, Langer and Gilchrist, too?

Refreshingly it is all down to form rather than reputation. Australia come into the eagerly awaited series in fine fettle while England are, well, no-one quite knows whether they are a decent side or not. And when that happens it is far easier to side with the gum-chewing, cocksure Aussies swaggering around like God's children.

Australia had a post Warne and McGrath wobble, suffering series defeats to India away from home and then South Africa at home. It was the latter which suggested the Australia we all knew were finished. Their first home series loss for 16 seasons rocked them to the core and captain Ricky Ponting admitted that rebuilding could "take years".

He might have been wrong. Two months after the end of that series Australia went to South Africa and produced a remarkable 2-1 victory. Hell, they even lost the dead rubber last game of the series, a trait of the old greats. The obituary had been written far too early.

It could be that Ponting will be proved right in England this summer but the evidence suggests otherwise. The key protagonists of the South Africa victory were not the old guard but young guys stepping up; Phillip Hughes, the opener, top scored with 415 runs and Mitchell Johnson, he of the piston and pump action, claimed 16 wickets.

Down came Australia's Ashes price and back came a familar fear of a mismatch to the soundtrack of England supporters asking themselves: could our bowlers take 20 wickets consistently enough to win in South Africa?

The answer would have to have been no considering England were trying and failing to bowl West Indies out twice in the Caribbean, their confidence shattered by a chastening series loss in India and a home reverse to South Africa which had forced their own rebuilding programme. England have since beaten West Indies at home 2-0. But as a guide goes it is as close to useless as you can get given their opponents either had the mental or technical capacity to even make a fight of it.

What is key to remember is that before West Indies were sent packing, England had managed 20 wickets only once in 11 Tests, a statistic which does not damn them for this series but provides a better indication of where they are as a unit. Granted there is much to like about James Anderson and Stuart Broad but there are question marks over the rest. Graham Onions is a novice, Andrew Flintoff will deserve a knighthood if he lasts all five matches unscathed, Ryan Sidebottom has been fed a Test diet of Kiwis and West Indians and when Steve Harmison's name is again being mentioned then you know the hosts are worried.

Australia's bowling looks in better shape and that is all you really need to know when perusing the prices for a Test match series. Solve the riddle of which team will take 20 wickets most will make you rich.

The visitors get the nod, in the main, because of Johnson. He can swing the ball both ways at 90mph with his left-arm, making him the most dangerous bowler on the planet. But crucially he can bat at No 8 - he scored a century in South Africa - which will allow back-up bowling in the form of Peter Siddle, another 90mph swinger, more pace from Brett Lee and the potential for metronomic line and length by Stuart Clark.

If that makes Australia sound the more settled bowling attack, then job done.

Do beware that the potential for something unsettling; a stray cricket ball on the outfield in the warm-up, a captain losing the plot at the toss or something remarkable from a cocky young English batsman. It is beginning to sound like 2005 all over again. Just like four years ago, one thing you be sure of is this: it will be mighty close.

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