Cometh the hour, cometh Monty? Could be, says Ralph Ellis as he puts the case for the Northants spinner's inclusion in the fifth Test...

Shane Warne might no longer be playing for Australia, but in one sentence he has damaged England's chances of regaining the Ashes as much as he ever did when he was twirling his arm over. It was Warne, Australia's legendary wizard of spin bowling, who came up with the phrase that has haunted Monty Panesar. "People tell me Monty has played 30-odd Tests," he said. "But I think he is one of those guys who has played one Test 30 times, and there is a big difference."

That savage remark came last summer as Panesar toiled against South Africa, and was repeated in the winter when he failed to bowl out India in 27 overs on a pitch that appeared to be tailor made for him. Everybody listened to Warne's wisdom, other commentators picked up the theme, and in an instant he had completely destroyed the confidence of England's potential match winner. Monty, who had become a cult hero for his enthusiasm and his match winning ability, took the words on board and tried to change. And the more he tried, the worse he got.

By the time we got to Cardiff at the start of the season, and Panesar had bowled through 35 overs taking a miserly one for 115, the legend of how he had lost his way was complete. He was axed, Graeme Swann took four wickets at Lord's, and Monty was yesterday's hero.

Except you just wonder whether the selectors had listened too much to Warne and ignored the evidence of their own eyes. Cardiff's wicket was meant to be a spinner's dream, but it wasn't. And if you looked at the figures, Panesar was actually England's most economical bowler as the Aussies ran up 674 for six. Swann took nought for 131 off just three overs more.

Now Monty is pleading for the chance to step back into the series just when it matters most. In public, in the past, when he's been left out he's talked cautiously about the honour of being part of a squad. This time he's stepped away from the usual clichés in his Daily Mail column today to set out why he believes he must be picked.

"I want to be Andrew Strauss' secret weapon," he says. "It will be a case of me posing different questions to them. I also like to think I am a big match player. I can stay calm and focused when the stakes are high as I showed with the bat in those final tense overs in Cardiff when we clinched a draw."

As it happens I think Monty's right. There are some players in every sport who defy logic by turning in performances on the big occasion and he has shown in the past he can be one of them. After the dismal flop at Headingley England need to bring in fresh enthusiasm and this could be his time.

There has been money to be made all summer in the Ashes series by going against the odds at the time. The draw is favourite for the fifth Test at [2.3], and given that none of the matches so far would have lasted the distance if it wasn't for the weather that must be one to lay. I also think [5.4] for England to win is amazingly generous - it's only one match ago that they were odds on to win the series and things can't change that much that quickly.

The Aussies are also looking at changing their team. Coach Tim Nielsen has told today's papers that Brett Lee could return, and many other Aussie commentators expect Nathan Hauritz to come into the reckoning. Either move might unsettle a group of players who thought they had a right to stay unchanged after winning a Test in little more than two days.

Five things you might not know about Tim Nielsen

1. Arguably he's English. He was born in Forest Gate in East London when his mum and dad, both teachers, were spending six months in England before moving to Canada

2. They carried on moving. He grew up at various times in Tennant Creek, Christmas Island and Alice Springs

3. Four months after starting work as assistant coach with Australia he told Ricky Ponting to remodel the way he prepared to bat

4. As a player he was a decent wicket keeper and batsman who overhauled Barry Jarman's South Australia state wicketkeeping record with 316 dismissals - but he never played Test cricket

5. He's a big fan of American sports and visited the New York Yankees for tips on coaching and preparation

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