The money has been coming for England but Strauss and co. are still [3.0] outsiders to win the series - the Contrarian is having a bit of that

Shane Warne feels that English fans are getting too arrogant about the prospect of retaining the Ashes with a rare victory Down Under, but even he was forced to concede that this is their best chance in 20 years. The Contrarian - who successfully argued last week that Fernando Alonso wouldn't win the Formula One Drivers' Championship (though he didn't anticipate the tantrum that followed) - is backing England to end their 24-year wait for a series win in Australia...

This is a completely different Australia team...
England's last trip to Australia saw them produce their most pitiful performance in 86 years and fall to a 5-0 series whitewash, but the hosts are vastly changed from the team that absolutely humiliated Andrew Flintoff's side back in 2006-07. Of the 11 men who represented Australia in the fifth Test four years ago, only captain Ricky Ponting, Michael Clarke and Mike Hussey are in their laughably large 17-man squad. Stuart Clark, the top wicket taker of that series, missed out on a central contract, while several stars such as Shane Warne and Glenn McGrath have retired.

...and they're on their worst run for 22 years
Further proof that the current side doesn't compare to the great team of the last decade is their form, or more significantly, lack of it. Australia head into the Ashes on a run of three straight Test losses, suffered at the hands of Pakistan and India, a fate last endured in 1988. The last was the most emphatic of the lot, a seven-wicket defeat which left them below England in the ICC Test rankings in fifth.

Australia are failing across the board
A trio of defeats could be written off as a blip, especially as two of those have come against the best Test nation on the planet, so it's by scanning Australia's latest results in all forms of cricket, Twenty20 and One Day Internationals (in which they are supposedly the world's finest) included, that the extent of their current malaise becomes clear. In addition to the Test match slump, they've lost four successive Twenty20 ties and were second-best in three ODIs in a row before seeing off Sri Lanka earlier this month, a win that didn't prevent them from losing the series, their first in almost two years at home.

England are in great form...
It's not only the fact that Australia are struggling that gives the Contrarian confidence that England are finally going to win Down Under though - England's recent record is hugely encouraging. Andrew Strauss' men are unbeaten in six Test series and have won the last three of those. The last time they were on such a successful streak was ahead of the memorable 2005 Ashes triumph. England haven't merely been grinding out series victories either, they've become tough to overcome in any given Test match, losing just three of their last 23 (13 per cent). It's therefore difficult to fault Paul Collingwood's contention that "We have the best squad together now that I've seen in my ten years in the game".

...and did it all just 15 months ago
England showed last summer that they are capable of outshining the Aussies and the majority of that squad, including top performer Strauss, are still there. Admittedly, being holders didn't prove much of an advantage in 2006-07, however there were clear signs form-wise that it would end badly as they won only one of four series in between winning the Ashes and losing them again down under. On two of the three occasions prior to that where England arrived in possession of the urn, they returned home with it still in their suitcase.

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