Michael Vaughan / Michael Vaughan / 15 January 2011 /

Michael weighs up the pitch and prices for the first ODI between Australia and England in Melbourne and urges patience in the match odds market.

The wicket for the first ODI at Melbourne will be similar to what we saw in the Twenty20 series. It will be quite slow with reverse swing and spin potentially playing an important part in the result.

I don't expect to see any huge scores on this pitch and the smart team will try to exploit the gaps and pick up runs here and there. The team that bats first will have a huge advantage - that could really make the difference in this one - because the pitch will slow down as they day goes on. Both sides will need to be clever about using gaps in the field to score quick singles and I expect that running between the wickets will be crucial.

England will be without James Anderson and Stuart Broad and of the pair I believe the latter is the greater loss for the ODI side. Broad has the ability to get key wickets and he has been important in the resurgence of this team over the last couple of years. But England still boast a strong bowling line up. Michael Yardy is the unsung hero of the attack and as a second spin option he has deepened the team's potency.

The ODI series will be much closer than the Test series as Australia are far stronger in the 50 over format. They have match winners throughout their side with Michael Hussey, Shaun Tait, Brett Lee and others all capable of changing the complexion of a match with big individual performances.

There's no surfeit of match winners in the English ranks though and I believe that this is the strongest one day side England have ever had. They boast players who can hit big boundaries, mix things up with devastating shots and they attack with great freedom.

Eoin Morgan has made a massive difference to England's fortunes. He is an unbelievable talent, he is the man with the x-factor and you can back him at [6.0] to be top England batsman in this first ODI. However, I can't look beyond the captain. Andrew Strauss is playing so well at the moment, so I'm putting my money on him at [4.6].

For the Aussies, Shane Watson is always a big threat in this format. He's a one day specialist who can exploit gaps with power and precision and he is in form. That first century isn't far away and I'm backing him at [4.2] to top score for the Aussies.

As for a match odds tip, I really do believe this one is too close to call. The market has Australia as slight favourites at [1.86] with England [2.14]. England won't have been too disappointed by their defeat in the final Twenty20 match so they're well capable of winning this one. However, my advice is wait until the toss and then pile in to whichever side is batting first.

Recommended bets:
Back Andrew Strauss to be England's top batsman at [4.6].
Back Shane Watson to be Australia's top batsman at [4.2].
Back the team that bats first to win

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