Michael Vaughan / Michael Vaughan / 06 December 2010 /

Fresh from tipping up double centurion Kevin Pietersen for first innings top bat honours, Michael Vaughan breaks some bad news to us as regards Stuart Broad and tips England to take the six wickets they need on day five to go 1-0 up.

I was certainly on the money when I tipped double centurion Kevin Pietersen to top score for England in their first innings at [5.2]. As was KP himself, when he dismissed Michael Clarke with the very last ball of the fourth day, a wicket that could prove to have a huge impact on this Test match and indeed the whole of the Series. If the Aussie vice-captain and Michael Hussey were at the crease and well set at the start of day five I'd strongly fancy the draw because those two can bat and bat and with overs expected to be lost to the weather, Australia would fancy their own chances of holding out for a priceless draw.

This way England will be bowling at a new batsman first thing in the morning and, in Marcus North, one who has had trouble in the past dealing with the off-spin of Graeme Swann. Next in after that is Brad Haddin - a fantastic batsman when it comes to going on the attack and scoring quickly but I'm not sure that a scenario where he just has to stick around all day would be tailor-made for the sort of player he is.

I've spoken before about how Graeme Swann was seen by many as the key player on either side and how so much was expected of him in this Series after his performances over the last couple of years. He had an indifferent First Test but he's come back here and shown people what he's all about. Being given the ball early on by his skipper on the final day of an Ashes Test Match and being asked to bowl Australia out on a pitch that's turning will have been the sort of situation Swanny will have dreamt of and he'll relish the challenge and the chance to shine in the spotlight.

The wicket of Hussey will of course be the key but if the weather allows England to get 40 or more overs in, I really like England's chances at [2.1]. And if you believe in omens, here's one for you. When we won that famous Second Test at Edgbaston in 2005, we also managed to dismiss Michael Clarke with the last ball of the fourth day so maybe the more superstitious members of the England dressing room will remember that and see it as a good sign.

People will have their own thoughts on whether Andrew Strauss' declaration came too late, many feeling there was no need to bat at all at the start of the fourth day. As ever when it comes to these sorts of decisions, the proof will be in the pudding. If England wrap up this Test it will be seen as the right decision, if they run out of time trying to dismiss the tail end, Strauss will be seen as having been too cautious and he'll have to take some criticism.

Finally, a word on Stuart Broad. Viewers on TV will have heard the commentators say he was struggling with a stomach injury as he was bowling but it's actually a lot worse than that and it looks like he will play no further part in this Series. That would of course be a bitter blow to England as Stuart has been a key part of England's recent success. And that's why it's absolutely imperative that England do win this second Test. If Australia escape with a draw here they'll look back at it almost as a win. If in addition to that one of England's key players is out of the Series, Australia will really feel like luck is on their side and will gain a new-found belief in themselves. And that, could be very dangerous.

Recommended Bet:

Back England to win the Second Test at [2.1]

'.$sign_up['title'].'

'; } } ?>

:

:

:

?

: