Match Previews / Ed Hawkins / 05 December 2010 /

Ed Hawkins says that Graeme Swann will be key to England's chances of winning the match. But did England score too slowly in the afternoon on day three?

At the start of this series the consensus was that Graeme Swann was going to prove to be the difference between the two sides. On days four and five on a worn Adelaide surface, he will get the chance to prove it.

England are pinning their hopes of victory on the spinner. They are right to do so because there has been enough bite and bounce from the footholds to ensure that Swann will bowl virtually unchanged all day with the pacemen rotating at the other end.

Still, there is plenty of work for England to do and one cannot help but feel that they should have moved the game on quicker than they have. They lead by 306 runs and a shower curtailed their chance to extend that. But soon after lunch today, Shane Warne was categorical that England should have been back in the field.

That they aren't is most certainly detrimental to their chances of winning the game. This column has been scathing throughout the Test about the match-odds market's inability to recognise that England should have been shorter, but no longer.

At [1.91] the draw looks fair with England drifting to [2.08]. It was an odd day of fluctuations. With England rocketing along in the first session at more than five an over, it was just plain wrong that they had drifted to [1.78], larger than they had started the day. At the break though, England were about right at [1.65].

They should have at least ended the day at around there. But they didn't. And this is where they have potentially made a disastrous error. In the 28 overs that were possible before the rain came they were far too slow, adding only 102 runs at 3.6 an over.

England should have been going at four an over at least, punishing a tired, toiling and, frankly, terrible Australia attack. It was surprising they did not accelerate, especially with Kevin Pietersen on the way to a double.

"You can't play the weather," Warne again. Not true. England would have known that rain was coming in that final session so it makes their sluggishness particularly confusing. Bettors are playing the weather, though and it is perhaps understandable that with so many bets relying on it, there is panic and hype.

The forecast is not as bad as some would have you believe. Our weather spies Down Under have confirmed that the last two days are unlikely to be the washout that some have forecast. Indeed, that is backed up by the excellent weatherzone.com.au.

Day four will be cloudy with a shower or two and on the final day more showers are forecast with the possibility of a thunderstorm. That forecast is not severe enough to back the draw. If you want to win money on the stalemate at its current price, do so only if you believe Australia can bat time.

That is what this game will come down to. England need to get their declaration spot on to take a 1-0 lead. That means get Australia in first thing on day four. Then it is all down to that man Swann.

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