Match Previews / Ed Hawkins / 01 December 2010 /

Ed Hawkins cannot see the mood of the home team improving at an expected flat and fruitful Adelaide wicket for the batsmen. He picks out the best bets for the start of game two late on Thursday

Australia achieved something remarkable in Brisbane. One of their bowlers took a hat-trick, two of their batsmen combined to post centuries and a record-breaking stand and by the end of day three they were the only side that could win. Yet they still contrived to end the Test on a dreadful and revealing low.

The insecurities among this Australia team should not be underestimated. They have been further exposed by the selectors calling up Ryan Harris and Doug Bollinger as four bowlers compete for three spots alongside Xavier Doherty, the spinner.

Mitchell Johnson - wicketless, runless, gutless - has been dropped. Bollinger, another left-armer, could get the nod ahead of Harris because his left-armers offer variety.

England are, of course, unchanged, and barring injuries seem certain to play the same XI for each of the five Tests. They have confidence in their players and know their own minds. The same cannot be said of the hosts.

Venue and conditions
There is a comprehensive guide to the pretty Adelaide Oval here but recent reports and history suggest runs are in the offing. This is the ground where England imploded horribly on the last day four years ago while Australia have wobbled there, too, losing to India in 2003 after posting 556 in first innings - the second highest losing first dig total in history.

There have been only two draws in the last 10 Tests but the average first-innings score in that time is 410. In domestic cricket this season, there have been two games with one ending in a result. New South Wales made a whopping 529 to beat South Australia by an innings and then the home side made 452 in a bat-dominant contest. On both occasions there was evidence of the pitch taking turn late on. Light rain is forecast for Sunday and Monday.

Match odds

If Brisbane proved anything, it was that these sides are both pretty average. It is likely that 20 wickets are going to be a struggle to come by. So it is not surprising to see the draw as short as [2.04].

If there was a wager to be had on a team winning, it would have to be England who are the bigger of the two at [4.20]. They are not inferior in any way so it is possible that we will look back at amazement at the end of the series at such prices.

Australia are [3.55], which is plain distasteful. We must stick to what we know and that is the hosts' bowling is awful and they must try to imrpove it on a good batting wicket, possibly the best of the series. The least likely result is an Australia win so lay away for decent sums.

Top batsman

It follows that if the bowling is weak, the batting is strong. Australia and England don't have any problems in this department and it is a bit like being a kid in a sweet shop as far as top-batsman is concerned.

In the last 10 years, the No 3 batting position has produced more first-innings top bats (six) than any other. That reinforces the view that Ricky Ponting is value to score runs. He is in good form, averages 59 there and scored a century last time out against England. He is [4.80], [1.84] for a first-innings 50 and [3.30] for a ton.

Mike Hussey, centurion at the Gabba, averages 95 on the ground. He is [6.80] for top bat, [1.84] for a 50 and [4.00] for a ton.

Man of the moment Alastair Cook is [4.70] for top bat with Jonathan Trott, the No 3, [5.30]. Kevin Pietersen, centurion at Adelaide four years ago is [4.80] while Paul Collingwood, a double centurion, is [5.10]. On such a good wicket, though, it may be best to back 50s or tons.

Recommended bet: lay Australia at [3.55]

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