Match Previews / Ed Hawkins / 27 December 2010 /

Ed Hawkins takes a look at the Test Match End market and Australia third-innings runs as England march towards victory at the MCG

It is just a question of when, not if, England will retain the Ashes after a humiliating day for Australia at the MCG. They were ground to dust by the unrelenting obduracy of Jonathan Trott, a South African who takes no prisoners, and an enjoyable cameo from Matt Prior, who relished finally putting his verbal tormentors to the sword.

Trott, who went to stumps on 141, produced exactly the sort of innings that England required on the pivotal day of the series. They needed something meticulous and studious in difficult conditions and Trott was the man.

It was a particularly impressive knock because he was paired with Kevin Pietersen at his most tricky. Pietersen seemed intent on committing cricket suicide, playing injudicious strokes with lunch imminent as England looked to recover from the double blow of losing Alastair Cook and Andrew Strauss.

Pietersen went to the new ball having made 51 and there followed the inevitable wobble. Ian Bell and Paul Collingwood followed soon after as England lost three wickets for 24 runs. It was a blessed relief for bettors, who had been deprived of much action, as the traditional new ball back-to-lay trade came up trumps.

But while England were quivering slightly, Trott was unmoved and he soon moved to his fifth century overall and his third against Australia. Prior, who was striking at 71, was fortunate to get a reprieve on five when he was caught behind for five of Mitchell Johnson only for umpire Aleem Dar to go to the replay, sure that Johnson had overstepped.

It was frustrating for Australia, and Ricky Ponting. Ponting had lost his cool earlier in the day,
convinced that Pietersen had been caught behind. He was jabbing his finger at the umpires despite a referral proving them right. It was proof of the mindset of Ponting and this team. They are beaten. They don't like it.

But have they given up? That is difficult to say, although that will not stop us trying to work out how long they will keep England waiting in the third innings. Australia's runs for that innings and the Test Match End Market offer betting options.

The average score in the third innings over the last 10 years at the MCG is 244. That number shows the task Australia face merely to avoid an innings defeat with England leading by a massive 346. You can lay the hosts at [2.05] for 300 runs or more.

Before perusing the Test End odds, it is worth trying to work out how long England will bat on for. Fortunately the Adelaide match offers a clue. A lead of 375 was deemed enough on that occasion although with still three days to play it is possible that England could bat all day. A declaration between lunch and tea is more likely.

They may well give themselves 40 overs or so to bowl at Australia tomorrow. If they do that, then we could be looking at a finish just before the end of the afternoon session on day four, which is priced at [5.50]. Why? Because in the third innings at the MCG over the last 10 years a wicket falls on average every eight overs.

The joint-favourite in the market is the [4.60] for a day four morning or evening finish. It is [7.40] that England wrap things up on day three.

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