Match Previews / Ed Hawkins / 26 December 2010 /

Ed Hawkins tries to understand why it took so long for the match odds market to recognise England as worthy winners in the MCG Test

"I'm supposed to be an expert," said Geoffrey Boycott in the fourth over of the first day at the MCG. "But England won't win this Test." Geoffrey may yet prove to be correct but his prediction goes a long way to explaining why England backers woke this morning feeling like it was Christmas Day again.

Before a ball had been bowled in the Boxing Day Test, England were [3.30] for victory, a price which we suggested you snap up in our match preview. After the toss, having won it and inserted Australia on a green top, they were [2.78] with the hosts favourites still. With the ball swinging and seaming and Australia one down, then two down, they could not budge them from favouritism.

It was only when Ricky Ponting, with a broken finger and averaging 16 in the series, was out that there was belief in the match-odds market. Boycott's comments and the lack of cash for England in those first few exchanges, betrayed all the insecurities and doubts that cricket watchers have in English sides Down Under.

Perhaps now, after finally doing a proper demolition job on the Australia batting and with a 59 lead with 10 first-innings wickets left, punters will believe; not believe that England are world beaters, but believe that this is a dreadful Australia side.

The prices would suggest that has finally happened. England are [1.23] to win the Test with Australia [19.00] and the draw [7.20]. Andrew Strauss' side are [1.51] to win the series.

There is work for England to do, of course and there may yet be a wobble along the way. The wicket has seam, swing and bounce and with Sheffield Shield teams averaging 342 in their first innings this season, it would be unwise to expect England to post something as mammoth as the MCG itself. They are as short as [1.65] for 525 runs or more for example while there is a bit of money around to lay at [1.99] for 450 or more.

A first-innings total of 350 should be more than enough to prove Geoffrey and the non-believers wrong. Australia's batting is a shaky structure underpinned by only Shane Watson, Mike Hussey and Brad Haddin. And when they all fail under tremendous strain, the result is something spectacular.

The trio have been laudably consistent so far but one cannot keep expecting them to carry their teammates. Ricky Ponting(93 series runs), Michael Clarke (135), Phillip Hughes (30) and Steven Smith (49) have together contributed fewer than Watson (298).

On the subject of Ponting, he looks as sad a sight as his swollen, black and bruised little digit. A great player has, as they say, gone at the game and it is to be hoped that he will be remembered for his runscoring rather than three times losing an Ashes series as captain.

Ponting, a strokeless shell of his former self, looks bewildered by it all, shaking his head each time at his cheap dismissal, muttering away underneath his helmet. He cannot understand it. He might find a bedfellow in Boycott.

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