Match Previews / Ed Hawkins / 23 November 2010 /

After all the talk of Andrew Strauss' bowlers finding Australia conditions alien, Ed Hawkins argues they will fit in at the Gabba on Wednesday night

Team news

Amidst all the bore-bore and jaw-jaw of the phoney war of words, it may have escaped most people's attention that Australia have a mini crisis on their hands. The injury news output surrounding Michael Clarke had been kept to a whisper but the vice-captain is a doubt for the eagerly-awaited first Ashes Test.

Clarke did not bat in Australia's first training session, only appearing for the second, and the uncapped Usman Khawaja, who could become the first Muslim to represent Australia, has been called up as stand-by. Khawaja averages 84 for New South Wales in the Sheffield Shield this term.

Clarke averages 55 in 15 Tests against England and, along with Ricky Ponting, holds together a fragile-looking batting line-up.

Australia are expected to use Mitchell Johnson, Peter Siddle and Ben Hilfenhaus to spearhead the pace attack with Shane Watson only an occasional bowler. The final bowling spot will go to either Xavier Doherty, a left-arm spinner or paceman Doug Bollinger, who looks to have been edged out by Siddle.

England's XI - Strauss, Cook, Trott, Pietersen, Collingwood, Bell, Prior, Swann, Broad, Anderson, Finn - has been known for some time. The only concern they have is over Kevin Pietersen, the one player who failed to make a significant contribution in the warm-ups.

Venue and conditions
An in-depth guide to the Gabba, or Gabbatoir as the locals call it with Australia not having lost there since 1988, can be found "here":https://betting.betfair.com/cricket/ashes-betting/venues/brisbane-211110.html. In the build-up to game one it is now widely accepted that the wicket will suit the fast bowlers.

The all out scores in two Sheffield Shield matches this season are: 223, 198, 196, 262, 75 and 96. Swing men have dominated, the latest being Chris Swan who took 13 wickets for Queensland against South Australia.

With such low scores, the first-innings runs market has great interest. Australia are [1.96] and England [1.74] respectively to lay for 300 runs or more.

There has been rain around in Brisbane in the last few days. The forecast is pretty good, though. Only light rain is forecast on one day - Friday.

Match odds
A no brainer. England have to be the pick at [3.25] to inflict defeat on Australia. It is the stand out wager and could well prove to be one of the bets of the series.

The logic is simple. On a wicket which is increasingly looking like a lottery for batsmen, it should come down to a straight fight between the fast-bowling line-ups. And there is not enough between the two to justify the gulf in price.

Australia are [2.32]. That does not mean they are a bad bet. It is just that England are a tremendous one. You should come to that conclusion even if you subscribe to the view that there is little to choose between the two bowling units.

After all, Mitchell Johnson and James Anderson can be as dangerous as each other in good bowling conditions. It could also be argued that England, schooled in such conditions, will not let such an opportunity pass them by.

Either way, England are value to draw first blood. The draw, at [3.90], should be kept an eye on. If we can lay at anything like sub [3.50] then we should take it. There have been only four draws since 1990.

Top batsman
Ricky Ponting averages more than 100 on the ground against England. He is [4.80] for top first-innings bat and [2.24] for a 50. Simon Katich, who top scored last time out versus West Indies, is [5.50] and [2.36].

Kevin Pietersen and Paul Collingwood, who made 96 and 92 in the second innings four years ago, are [5.40] and [5.50] respectively. KP is [2.24] for a first dig 50. Andrew Strauss, the [5.00] top-bat jolly, has struggled in first Tests as skipper, averaging only 37.

Recommended bet; back England to win first Test at [3.25]

Follow Ed Hawkins on Twitter "here":https://twitter.com/cricketbetting

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