Match Previews / Ed Hawkins / 27 November 2010 /

Ed Hawkins says that although England's situation at the Gabba is grim, we should not write off the tourists for the rest of the series and he suggests a betting option for day four

The scorecard from the Gabba after day three has a familiar look to it. Haven't we seen this sort of thing before? True, it could be any one from the last five England visits Down Under. The numbers are the same. Only the names different.

With a massive lead of 202 with England 19-0 in their second innings it would appear only a matter of time before the déjà vu is complete. Australia are [1.41] to take a 1-0 lead. They have shortened to [1.71] to win the series.

Mike Hussey, a familiar unforgiving foe, is the architect of Australia's dominance. His 195 sapped the life from England and along with Brad Haddin, whose 136 was the more aesthetically pleasing, they ensured bleary-eyed Englishmen went to bed mumbling 'it wasn't supposed to be like this'.

It wasn't. But on the face of it, is it? Granted England are likely to find themselves 1-0 down, possibly scuppering their hopes of winning the series given that sides just don't come from behind to win in Australia, although they can claim to be unfortunate.

So before cries of 'bring them home!' replace the nocturnal whispers, let us consider that the scorecard could be very different indeed had the coin fallen on a different face. Had Australia been forced to bat first on a tricky day one surface, then the pre-series predictions of English dominance could have been accurate.

Sod's law they call it. Australia had won 11 of the previous 12 flips and although Andrew Strauss had the opportunity to stick the hosts in, ghosts of Ashes past were in his ear reminding him of two words, 'Nasser' and 'Hussain'.

Still, England could, and should, have batted better. An old failing with their batting has been that too often batsmen get starts and fail to go on. Alastair Cook and Kevin Pietersen were the guilty parties this time.

However, it did not look disastrous. At the start of day three England were very much in the game. James Anderson bowled superbly offering a master class in line, length and seam movement. It had everything. Apart from a wicket.

Hussey, the centurion, was fortunate. He was given out lbw to Anderson only to be saved by referral and when he was struck plumb in front soon after, rooted to the crease and the ball ready to knock all three pieces of timber from the earth, umpire Aleem Dar was unmoved, perhaps wary of his overturned decision previously.

Nine times out of 10 Anderson would have taken two more wickets in such a spell and England would have got close to first-innings parity. It could so easily have been a different story.

You won't hear many pundits suggesting such a plot, though. The hype that surrounds these Ashes series dictates that. However, try to stick the fingers in the ears and remain rational. Writing off England at this juncture of the series would be a mistake. An expensive one.

Indeed, we should expect them to show fight with the bat on day four. They surely cannot win the game - they would need to bat for five sessions and hope to have somewhere in the region of 400 - but they can occupy the crease. And that means the draw price can be profitable.

At [3.90] it will not take much for that to dramatically head south, a 50- or 60-run partnership will provide fine back-to-lay opportunities. And even England are capable of that.

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