Match Previews / Ed Hawkins / 02 January 2011 /

Ed Hawkins cannot be tempted into getting with the hosts for the final match of the series, which starts in Sydney on Sunday night

Team news
All change for Australia. Ricky Ponting's Test career looks to have come to a sad end. It is a broken finger which keeps him out of this Test while Australia's thirst for a new era should keep him out of any more.

Michael Clarke becomes Australia's 43rd captain and although he inherits a group of players who should be demoralised, the changes might instil a more gung-ho approach. Usman Khawaja will become the first Muslim to play for Australia while spinner Michael Beer will surely make his debut at the expense of the irrelevant Steve Smith.

Doug Bollinger comes back into the side at the expense of the injured Ryan Harris. Bollinger is one of six players - Clarke, Smith, new vice-captain Brad Haddin, Shane Watson, Phil Hughes - who call the SCG home.

All change for England? An early examination of how focussed the tourists are will be if they blindly stick with the same XI at the MCG. There is no doubt that Paul Collingwood's place should be under threat. The Durham man averages only 14 in the series and Eoin Morgan should be given a chance.

If not, England could drop Collingwood for Monty Panesar giving them two spinners on a surface which has seen turn in the past. Matt Prior would move up to bat at No 6.

Venue and conditions
There is an in-depth preview of the SCG here. The first-innings average in the last 10 years is 380, although in eight Sheffield Shield first innings (both teams) this term, the average is 272. In November, New South Wales were beaten by Tasmania after being bowled out for 97.

It is seam and swing which has done the damage rather than spin, though. Normally Sydney is good for batting. Indeed, with 1,295 runs per Test in the last three years) it is Australia's best ground for the willowmen.

Australia are [1.73] for a centurion in the first innings with England [1.69]. There have been 31 centuries scored in Tests in the last 10 years.

There is a bit of weather around although with only light rain forecast on Monday and Tuesday it would be folly to start factoring that into our betting.

Match odds
For the first time in the series England are probably the right price. The [2.60] is where they should have been for Adelaide. By now the world and his wife know they are the superior team so there seems little point explaining again why they have outmuscled the hosts.

The only potential weakness for England is themselves. It is entirely possible that with their prime objective achieved they might relax slightly, allowing Australia a window of opportunity.

Still, Australia do not make much appeal at [3.65]. We would want at least [4.50] before taking them on. The draw is [2.92] and we will look to lay that closer to [2.50] as panic spreads about the weather forecast.

Top batsman
New captain Clarke has a poor average at the SCG in Tests. He averages only 29. That stat coupled with poor form makes him bad value at [5.70] for top Australia batsman in the first innings. Watson, with a mark of 33, is not much better at [5.00].

Unsurprisingly it is Mike Hussey who attracts most interest. He has an average of 101 and has scored more runs that anyone else in the last five years at the venue. He is [5.00] for top bat, [2.26] for a 50 and [4.50] for a ton. New boy Khawaja gets a top-bat quote of [7.00] and is [2.26] for a 50.

The England top-bat market is evidence of the tourists' dominance. Andrew Strauss, Alastair Cook, Kevin Pietersen and Jonathan Trott are all [5.30]-[5.40]. As ever, Ian Bell appeals at
[7.00] while Any Other (which could include Collingwood, Morgan and Matt Prior) is [7.00]

Recommended bet: M Hussey top Australia bat in first innings at [4.00]

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