Match Previews / Ed Hawkins / 14 December 2010 /

Ed Hawkins says the match-odds market has got it badly wrong ahead of the start of game three in Perth on Wednesday night. He has some top-bat tips, too

Team news
Where have you been since Adelaide? Australia have not just tweaked but culled. The Test careers of Marcus North and Xavier Doherty look over. Simon Katich, who has been ruled out with an Achilles injury for the series, is unlikely to wear the Baggy Green again.

Doug Bollinger, the left-arm paceman, is probably cooked, too. Ricky Ponting said he hit the wall in the second Test and with the selectors having run out of patience with his fitness problems it looks a long way back.

The new guard, or should that be old guard, consists of the returning Mitchell Johnson and Ben Hilfenhaus. Phillip Hughes will open in place of Katich and Steven Smith, a leg-spinning allrounder replaces North. Brad Haddin moves up to bat at No 6 with Smith next.

Comically, the Aussies have called up a novice called Beer. Well, they couldn't give a XXXX for anything else. Michael is the 10th twirler they have tried since Shane Warne's retirement. It is unlikely that he will make the XI, however.

England must decide whether to replace Stuart Broad, who is out of the series, with Ajmal Shahzad or Chris Tremlett. It is dependent on what the wicket will do. If it is green then Shahzad will get the nod. Anything else and England will feel Tremlett gives them something extra with his height and bounce.

James Anderson, who flew to England and back for the birth of his daughter, insists he is fresh for the contest, claiming he stayed on Australia time.

Pitch, conditions and venue
There is an in-depth Waca pitch report here. More up-to-date reports suggest that Australia will prepare a green wicket to help the fast bowlers. It is a gamble, but their impotent attack needs all the help they can get. The problem for Australia is that if it helps them, it will certainly help England.

Darren Pattinson, a one-cap England wonder, claimed eight wickets in an innings earlier in the season for Victoria on the surface and New South Wales won a low scoring match in the Sheffield Shield at the start of the month with seamers again to the fore. There is no rain forecast.

Match odds
The match-odds market has been behaving oddly, as if it has had too much sherry at the Christmas party. Look at the prices: [2.70] Australia, [2.70] England and [3.80] the draw. How can Australia be the same price as a dominant England outfit?

It is because there is widespread panic regarding the draw. The catalyst has been reports, or rumours if you like, that the groundsman is preparing a green wicket. Bettors have decided to read that snippet of information as 'batting minefield'.

The correlation is puzzling. Sure, it may well be green at the moment but on the morning of the game the curator could give it a close shave to reveal a fair surface. There is no need for the sort of fluctuation that we have seen in the build-up.

Brisbane, a wicket which for the world suggested a draw was the least likely result, produced a stone-bonking stalemate. Perth does not have the same record or reputation as that pitch. Still, it gives a wonderful betting opportunity.

The Waca was supposed to herald the first Test that England have been favourites to win Down Under in God knows how long. It has not transpired, giving us a chance to again lay Australia at ridiculously skinny prices.

They remain in disarray and their changes are likely to make little difference. In fact, they might be weaker with the bat without Katich while there is so much pressure on the temperamental Johnson that it could all blow up horribly.

Top batsman
Michael Clarke finally found some form in Adelaide and with a good mark of 47 on this ground, he may be worth following at [6.20] for top-bat honours. He is [2.24] for a 50 and [4.80] for a ton in first dig.

We cannot recommend an out-of-sorts Ricky Ponting at short odds ([4.90]) for most runs. Mike Hussey at [5.60] will see interest. A lay of Hughes, who has a technique which England have exposed in the past, for a 50 at [2.80] is a solid wager.

If it does bend, Andrew Strauss and Alastair Cook could be vulnerable early on which leaves Jonathan Trott and Kevin Pietersen in pole. Trott is [6.00] for top bat, [2.28] for a 50 and [4.60] for a ton. Pietersen is [5.20], [2.24] and [4.60] respectively. He has three times followed up a ton with another in the next Test.

Recommended bet: lay Australia at [2.74]

'.$sign_up['title'].'

'; } } ?>

:

:

:

?

: