Match Previews / Ed Hawkins / 24 December 2010 /

Ed Hawkins reckons England are gift-wrapped and under the tree at the odds, arguing that if the two sides are evenly matched they should be closer in the betting for the action from Melbourne in the Boxing Day Test

Team news
Ricky Ponting, and his broken little digit, have attracted most of the attention since Australia's stunning comeback win at the Waca. He, and it, are expected to be fit to take part in Boxing Day at the 'G'.

It is just as well. Without Ponting, Australia's top six would have looked feeble. Even with him, there is substance to Michael Vaughan's assertion that it is the worst anyone has seen. Phillip Hughes is a walking wicket, Michael Clarke is out of form and Steven Smith shouldn't be anywhere near the team.

Despite Ponting being fit, Australia may resist the temptation to stick with the same XI which succeeded in Perth. They need to play a spinner and given Smith is clearly not one - he didn't bowl in the third Test - they may need to find room for the unheralded Michael Beer. Smith and Peter Siddle look most vulnerable.

England may shuffle their bowling pack. James Anderson has complained of a stiff side - flying home to England cannot have helped - but is set to play while Steven Finn and Ajmal Shahzad are going head-to-head for the final bowling spot.

With the MCG wicket looking greener than a Christmas reveller on the morning after, Shahzad's ability to bend the ball is apparently enticing the selectors. But surely England cannot afford to drop Finn, who is not only England's leading wicket-taker, but the top bowler in the series with 14 wickets?

Venue and conditions
For what is Australia's cultural highlight of the year, it is ironic that the MCG wicket for the Boxing Day Test is the most English of the five venues. England should feel right at home here, especially with plenty of grass covering the wicket.

Recent history suggests their bowlers should get plenty of seam and swing. The first match-innings average in the last 10 Tests is 360 and in Sheffield Shield matches this season, the average of the five all out first-innings for each team is 342.

One can lay Australia at [2.02] for 400 runs or more and given the statistics - and their potential for collapse at the top of the order - that may well prove to be a solid wager.

Swing and spin are both potent weapons it would seem. Last year, when Australia beat Pakistan, Mohammad Aamir and Nathan Hauritz both claimed five wicket hauls. Recently Tasmania beat Victoria by 23 runs with Xavier Doherty, the offspinner, and Luke Butterworth, a Paul Collingwood-style bowler, claiming five wickets.

Mitchell Johnson, who destroyed England in the first-innings at the Waca, took five wickets in an innings for Western Australia and scored a century this season. He is [3.35] to be top Australia bowler in first innings.

The weather forecast is good with only the odd shower mentioned on days two and three.

Match odds
Most of us are hoping for a gift this festive season which keeps on giving. Fret not. The search is over. England at [3.30] to win the fourth Test fits the bill perfectly.

Don't waste one's time worrying about the form of certain players, the respective psychological states of both teams, the wicket, who will swing it, who won't, team changes or past history.

Plain and simple it is the wrong price because, on all evidence, there is not much to choose between these teams. England are actually probably the better side but that, oddly, is irrelevant.

If they are about even-steven, and the 1-1 scoreline backs that up, then they should be much closer in the betting. There was a huge overreaction to Australia's win at the Waca. Take advantage.

Top batsman
Had England found a way to get out Michael Hussey in this series the urn may well have already been retained. The scorer of six consecutive Ashes 50s for the first time in history, Hussey is an ominous figure for England supporters.

Worrying for them again, he has a century to his name the last time he played there for WA. Hussey is [5.30] for top bat and [2.32] for a 50. Hughes, who we like to lay to raise his bat, is another worthy wager at [3.25]. Ponting is [5.20] for top bat and [2.78] for a 50.

For England we quite fancy Collingwood for runs. Colly is under pressure and he usually produces in such an environment. A slow wicket also suits his style. Perth did not. He is [7.00] for top bat and [2.68] for a 50. Matt Prior, who scored a ton on the ground earlier on tour, is the same price for honours and [2.80] for a 50.

Recommended Bet: Back England in 4th Ashes Test at [3.3]

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