Live Blogs / Ed Hawkins / 18 December 2010 /

Ed Hawkins is in position once more on day three to advise you on the comings and goings from the Waca. Follow him on Twitter here

10.03 Eng 81-5, target 391
Australia should wrap up the Test tomorrow to go to Melbourne at 1-1 giving us the sort of tight series that had been expected hitherto post-Adelaide. Australia have got their act together while England have never really recovered from their firs-innings collapse. Inconsistent eh? We are seeing now why these sides were rated fifth and fourth in the world before the action began. Still, Australia would appear to be heavily reliant on Mitchell Johnson and it would be wrong to go overboard about the hosts for that reason alone. Australia [1.02].

WICKET Eng 81-5
P Collingwood c Smith b Harris 11

09.56 Eng 81-4
That just about cooks England as Jimmy Anderson walks in as nightwatchman. The wicket may have come at a price with Ricky Ponting hurting his finger as he palmed the ball to Haddin. It's magic Johnson.

WICKET Eng 81-4
J Trott c Haddin b Johnson 31

09.45 Eng 73-3
A shot of Steve Smith shouting encouragement. Enjoy it while it lasts pal. Whatever the result here, Australia must surely drop him. A totally pointless selection. He's batting at No 6 and isn't a specialist. But hasn't turned his arm over, either. If Australia pick a genuine batsman, they will look strong on the back of a win here.

09.34 Eng 64-3
Timing is very important when it comes to wagering. So although it would be reasonable to reckon that Trott and Collingwood, surely England's most determined batsmen, can rebuild, the timing is not right for a trade. For a start, Collingwood is fresh to the crease, making him vulnerable. Secondly, with only 26 minutes to go until the close, these two must start afresh tomorrow. New day. New innings.

09.24 Eng 55-3
Kevin Pietersen departs bringing an under-pressure, out-of-form and not-suited-to-the-pitch Paul Collingwood to the crease. It was KP's first ball after a bat change. He might have lost concentration because it was a poor shot. England [9.80] and Australia [1.11].

WICKET 09.20 Eng 55-3
K Pietersen c Watson b Hilfenhaus 3

09.09 Eng 51-2
'If you are so negative about England's chances why don't you lay them?' Good question. I'm glad you asked that. Simply because I think bettors want a better service than some bloke sitting os his sofa telling you to lay [5.00] chances. For example, a back-to-lay of England might work better for you now. And we're also hoping to get with Australia again at bigger odds, getting our timing right on the inevitable partnership. This might be it.

09.00 Eng 51-2
England [4.90]. That remains dreadful value. Still, that will come down with a partnership. There are 21 overs possible today but we will only play until 10.00.

08.44 Eng 39-2
England in trouble for sure as Australia hit [1.17]. It is Johnson again who has done the damage, removing Strauss with an edge to slip. Kevin Pietersen is the new man. It hs to be said but the Australia bolwers look suddenly venomous. Plenty of edges preceded Strauss' dismissal and for this spell looks tricky to bat. Trott squared up as I type.

WICKET 08.39 Eng 37-2
A Strauss c Ponting b Johnson 15

08.27 Eng 27-1
There you go then. Look at the movement. Australia [1.30] and England [4.30]. There will be a partnership, though, I'm sure. Jonathan Trott the new man in. Unfortunately, it might not involve him. Quite a few reckon he struggles on pacy wickets.

WICKET 08.23 Eng 23-1
A Cook lbw b Harris 13

08.22 Eng 23-0
Thanks to those stats - which gives England a 74% chance of defeat - we need to work out how best to get with Australia. Even if we were generous and gave away the % points of a draw (it can't be a stalemate after all) to England, they would still only rate [7.00] chances. Australia [1.48] and England [3.05].

08.10 Eng 8-0
We expect to see plenty of movement in the match odds. Or panic in other words. We could well see a situation develop where odds will flip flop for partnerships and wickets. Good trading conditions, although as we always say: timing is vital. The key will be whether Mitchell Johnson can get the ball to bend I guess, but England at 3.5 is not value. Right on cue, the stats come up that ion first-class cricket only 1.6% of teams chasing this total or more have won. Australia are [1.41]

07.59 Eng 0-0
Correction, fifth highest.

07.55 England need 391 to retain Ashes
If England win, it will be the fourth-highest fourth-innings chase in history. When you look at it like that, England are poor value at [3.51]. But we can understand why they are so sleight. Two years ago, South Africa chased the second total on that list - 414 - at the Waca. And Australia's bowling in this series has been unreliable at best.

07.50 England need 391 to retain Ashes
Good work from England, not so hot from Australia. One was down and out, the other almost level, if you get me. But I suppose we shouldn't be surprised that Australia have given Egland a chance. The 390 England need is a daunting prosect, even if if it could, and should have been more like 450. England are [3.51] with Australia [1.40]

WICKET Aus 309, lead by 390
M Hussey c Swann b Tremlett 116

WICKET 07.40 Aus 308-9, lead by 389
P Siddle c Collingwood b Anderson 8

07.30 Aus 297-8
Hussey and Siddle have put on 13, hoping to build on that after tea. Australia [1.36], England [4.00]. "Big push from England - they've got to go bang-bang," says David Lloyd.

07.02 Aus 290-8
The new ball is available for England. Not sure why England are delaying. Seems to be a bit of a trend these days. Captains don't take it straight away, it's as if they're admitting a weakness. Peter Siddle is quite happy facing the old cherry, one would have thought.

06.47 Aus 284-8, lead by 365
Australia have let England back in. There is no doubt about that. The game was at their mercy with Hussey and Smith together. Not now. England have a new ball in four overs' time but they will be wary of Hussey (102) taking advantage by cutting loose.

WICKET 06.45 Aus 284-8
R Harris c Bell b Finn 1

06.33 Aus 277-7, lead by 357
Mitchell Johnson becomes Paul Collingwood's 16th Test victim. England into [4.34] and Australia [1.34]. We are getting close to a situation where we can see flip flops between the two. The draw is out of the question and should be twice as big as [25.00]. Backing England now could mean an opportunity to lay off at half the odds at some time tomorrow. Still, they have to get Australia out of there with a lead of fewer than 400. Have I said that before?

WICKET Aus 276-7
M Johnson c Bell b Collingwood 1

06.26 Aus 272-6
Right then, if Johnson was to go quickly then England would be in with a real chance of keeping the lead to fewer than 400. A real bonus. They are [6.20]. Australia still [1.30]. Hussey goes to 96.

WICKET 06.23 Aus 271-7
B Haddin b Tremlett 7

06.11 Aus 269-5
By dividing the number of wickets by the number of overs, a wicket falls on average every 8.4 overs. That would mean Australia would need at least 84 overs to bowl out England. However, on day two at 09.21 we were averaging a wicket every seven overs so it is clear this wicket is getting better. If the status quo remains we are on course for a day four evening session finish, which is [2.00] jolly on the Test Match End market. If there is continued improvement, morning of day five at [4.00] might offer greater value.

06.04 Aus 253-5, lead by 334
Well, England needed that. But they have work to do. The Hussey-Haddin axis has troubled them previously and they will need to break it quickly. Mitchell Johnson will have to follow soon after, too. Australia [1.30] and England [7.00].

WICKET 06.00 Aus 252-4
S SMith c Prior b Tremlett 36

05.42 Aus 241-4
Mike Hussey is only nine runs behind Alastair Cook as leading series runscorer. He is as short as [1.84] for honours. There are 59 overs left today. If Australia bat for all of them, they could declare tomorrow with a lead of 500 and two full days to bowl out England. Granted this is a good pitch but anything of 450 plus and you have to say England are cooked. In truth, Australia, even though they are skinny at [1.30] should be shorter.

05.32 Aus 230-4
Steve Smith survives a referral for leg before. He is looking pretty cosy otherwise, which has to be an indicator that this pitch is getting easier to bat on. Still, that is no beam of light for England. At this rate (there is still so much time left in the game) Australia could lead by 500. Graeme Swann, finally, is coming on

05.21 Aus 224-4
Jeez, even Steve Smith is being made to look good. He has 28 and the market is slow to reacft. He is [2.10] for a 50. Normally a batsman would be well odds on.

05.17 Aus 218-4
England's big problem here is that they are at the mercy of Australia. That should not be the case. They should be able to have a say in how this game moves forward. But Graeme Swann has not bowled today and Andrew Strauss' captaincy has been reluctant to attack with his field placing. It means that Australia are now in a position to say 'when should we declare?' That is disastrous for England. After bowling out the hosts for 268 and then being skittled they should have been capable of ensuring that question was not asked. If they're not taking wickets, they are just waiting, waiting.

05.10 Aus 211-4, lead by 292
These are the prices then as the second sessions begins: [1.33] Australia, [5.80] England and [10.50] the draw.

LUNCH 05.03 Aus 211-4
Morning all. I can say one thing at this wee hour with utter certainty: it's too early to be eating Pringles. But once you pop, you can't stop, as they say. Mike Hussey knows what I'm talking about. He can't stop either (scoring runs that is). England just can't get him out. Extraordinary. Another 50 for the Aussie No 5. It means that England are being manipulated. They have to win the next session. If they don't, then a chase of more than 400 is guaranteed.

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