Live Blogs / Ed Hawkins / 27 December 2010 /

Ed Hawkins was in front of the television for the third day of action at the MCG as England built towards retaining the Ashes. Follow him on Twitter here

01.49 Eng lead by 415
A look at Australia's top-bat market. And with it, I'm off to bed.

Watson: Solid and dependable. Not the worst wager in the world at [5.60]. He is [2.22] for a 50.
Hughes: Dreadful technique. Don't touch him with someone else's money. A great lay for a 50 if you can find a punter to take the bet. Good luck with that, though.
Ponting: Far too short at [4.50]. Broken finger, broken form, broken man.
Hussey: At [4.80] he is the only guy we could recommend. He has the form and technique to thrive. But hell, everyone knows that. A good bet at [2.36] for a 50, though.
Clarke: Looks frightened to play a shot. At [6.80] he does not appeal.
Any Other: This is basically Haddin. I want more than [7.40], though. Steve Smith, bless him, doesn't know how to hold a bat.

01.39 Eng lead by 415
So how many will Australia score? Well, the average all out score for third innings at the MCG in the last 10 years is 244. We have conventional swing, reverse swing and probably the best surface for Graeme Swann to take into consideration, too. I don't think we should frame any bets on how demoralised Australia are. I get a little uncomfy when attempting to be an amateur psychiatrist to try to win cash. Smacks of desperation. We can lay them at [2.32] for 350 runs or more. Solid wager that.

01.32 Eng lead by 415
Did some enjoyable stat work earlier and worked out that in the third innings of Tests at the MCG over the last 10 years, a wicket falls every eight overs. That puts us on course for a day four morning session finish. It is the jolly at [3.20] on Test Match End. Day four afternoon is [3.70]. A finish today is [5.00]. Not sure even Australia can bat so poorly as to lose this one today.

LUNCH 01.28 Eng 513
So England lead by 415. They will be delighted with that. And their mood will not have dipped by losing their last five wickets for 69. It shows there is still enough in this pitch. There was reverse swing, too which will be hugely useful if they fail to make inroads with the cherry. There are potentially 65 overs left tonight. And another 180 on the remaining two days. The weather forecast is excellent. Can someone explain why the draw is [7.40]? Actually, can someone explain how it would be possible for it to be a draw? England [1.16], the draw [7.40], Australia [80.00].

WICKET 01.21 Eng 513
J Anderson b Siddle 1

01.19 Eng 512-9
Hilfenhaus is on fire! He obviously saw the stat showing that he averaged nearly 100. England lead by 414 and now is a good time for a price check. England [1.16], draw [7.40] and Australia [80.00]. The draw odds, by the way, are utterly ridiculous. How it has shortened with England on the brink of being bowled out before lunch is totally beyond me.

WICKET 01.15 Eng 512-4
C Tremlett b Hilfenhaus 4

01.09 Eng 509-9
That was Hilfenhaus' third wicket in the series. You would hardly describe him as penetratrive. Not even a partnership breaker with returns like that. Economical, though. Chris Tremlett comes out to bat with what looks like a poo stick. Can someone not get the lad a bigger bat? It's ridiculous. Hilf, emboldened by his wicket-taking ability, smartly bowls a yorker first up but Tremlett jams something down on it. Nasser Hussain reckons Trott will 'play some shots now'. Didn't know he was capable.

WICKET 01.06 Eng 508-8
G Swann c Haddin b Hilfenhaus 22

00.55 Eng 503-7
Excellent stats there on Johnson's speeds throughout the Test. His average speed has dipped nearly 4mph since day one. Stamina. Or rather a lack of it. Trott has 166. It is entirely possible that England will delay a declaration to allow him to get a double century. He needs to get a wriggle on, though. Trott's 'problem' is that he appears to have only one speed. And it's not that fast.

00.49 Eng 499-7
I'll tell you one drawback about having to sit up to the small hours doing this blog is the heating bill. I never switch the damn thing off. There's a constant humming as if I've got tinnitus. Graeme Swann is buzzing nicely, giving it plenty of biff. That's 10 off that Mitchell Johnson over. It's reassuring in this ever-changing world that some things remain a constant eg Johnson is dreadful. He is comfort to pensioners everywhere.

00.30 Eng 473-7
The average score in the third innings over the last 10 years at the MCG is 244. That number shows the task Australia face merely to avoid an innings defeat with England leading by a massive 375. You can lay them at [2.05] for 300 or more.

00.24 Eng 469-7
Harris won't bowl again this innings. I guess he must be a doubt for Sydney, too, given that it follows hard on the heels of this game. I don't wish to go over old ground but Steve Smith, the mystery No 6, is unlikely to be involved, too. Nice chap I'm sure but the selectors have royally shafted him by bringing him in far, far too early. If there was one selection which exposed Australia as a spent force, it was that one. Trott goes to 150.

00.17 Eng 465-7
Five wickets for Siddle. Graeme Swann comes into bat. The game is moving on quickly indeed. If England are bowled out before lunch I don't think they'll be too bothered. It just means Australia have to survive for even longer.

WICKET 00.14 Aus 465-7
T Bresnan c Haddin b Siddle 4

00.05 Eng 465-6
Ryan Harris has hobbled off with what looks like an ankle injury. We might not see him again for bowling duties. Let's hope it's just a precaution because we've got funds invested in him for top Australia series wicket-taker and top series wicket-taker. He has immediately drifted to [10.00] on the market for the former. Mitchell Johnson and Peter Siddle, who are tied with Harris on 11 wicket each, are [2.00] and [2.50] respectively.

23.58 Eng 463-6
Tim Bresnan's in. He's a big lad isn't he? He looks like one of those stone walls built on tut Pennines. It looks impossible for anything to get past that defence. He is [3.80] for a 50. Dreadful wager, that, even if he does look impenetrable.

WICKET 23.52 Eng 459-6
M Prior c Ponting b Siddle 85

23.51 Eng 459-5
Let's have a look at the session runs market following our nailbiting winner on said market yesterday. The most 'live' bracket is 90 runs or more. This is [1.31] to back and [1.57] to lay. It is difficult to judge because we're essentially guessing at England's mindset. Are they going to attack or merely set up an attack? England would have to score at 2.7rpo. They are at 3rpo in the last 10.

23.41 Eng 447-5
I guess the reason for the draw price being as 'short' is the ease with which England are scoring runs. The rationale is that Australia will find it as easy. I'm not sure I agree. For a start, let's not forget Australia were bowled out for 98. Second of all they are demoralised, sour in the knowledge that the Ashes are being packed up (this is a metaphor, I know they're at HQ) ready for return to England. The draw price always shoots up on a declaration and, of course, when wickets fall.

23.33 Eng 444-5
The draw price is interesting me. It is [8.40] to lay at the mo. Now fast forward to when Australia are batting, probably later today. What do you think the draw price will be? Not [8.40] that's for sure. It should balloon like someone with a nut allergy who's just been force fed a Snickers. This is a lay-to-back.

23.26 Eng 444-5
Welcome to the blog for day three. An odd day in prospect really because the game is, effectively, done and dusted. England lead by a massive 346 with a possible 270 overs left in the game. The odds, of course, reflect this. England are [1.16], Australia [55.00] and the draw is [8.20]. We still have some tricks up our sleeve, however, for potential punts so stay tuned.

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