Live Blogs / Ed Hawkins / 26 December 2010 /

Ed Hawkins had almost as good a first day as England at the MCG. He was back for more with the tips and trends and produced more winning advice. Follow him on Twitter here

LUNCH 01.39 Eng 226-2, England lead by 128
That is probably England's session. But they key is the new ball which is due in four overs. I'm off to bed now but the sensible betting option for those demanding a wager from this betting blog is to get with Australia once they get the cherry. A wicket, or two, will allow one to lay off. A couple of points per wicket one would have thought. Certainly batting should be tricky for Jonathan Trott (31) and Kevin Pietersen (31) if the home bowlers get the ball to swing. Ryan Harris and Peter Siddle are likely to be paired with the new ball. Harris is probably the greater threat. Indeed, he will have to be. The Ashes hinges on that new ball. If Australia waste it, they're done for. Here are the prices: Australia [15.50], England [1.21] and the draw [8.60].

LUNCH 01.32 Eng 222-2
Winner. By one run. England added 69. The expletives are unrepeatable on this family blog when England managed an all-ran four with a ball to go but we got there. Phew.

01.29 Eng 222-2
Oh no! Another over from Smith. We're done for, surely.

01.25 Eng 219-2
Maiden over from Smith. Did I mention I thought he was great? This will be the last over. And it is the dependable Hilfenhaus to bowl it. Surely he will restrict England here.

01.23 Eng 219-2
Will this be the last over before lunch? Hope so. England need seven to ruin Christmas in this house. Unfortunately it is Steven Smith who is bowling. My hatred for the podgy legspinner will know no bounds if he ruins it. Actually, KP is batting like a total fool, trying to smash him.

01.20 Eng 219-2
There's a small chance Australia can get back into the game if they can restrict England to a lead of 200, 225," says my betting.betfair colleague Michael Vaughan. "It looks like 2-1, though." Vaughan reckons Australia need to bowl nice and full and catch well. We won't disagree with that. Currently England lead by 121.

01.18 Eng 219-2
What on earth are you doing KP? Dancing down the wicket like that to hit Steven Smith for four. We've got a wager on here and you're...oh christ he's done it again. Two fours from three balls. If this bet goes down I'll burn the Xmas tree.

01.16 Eng 210-2
Goody. England have gone quiet. They have done this just before a lunch break. And to our cost, too when we we had backed them for runs in the first session. Brisbane it was I believe. They slowed right up, almost to a crawl. Their run rate in the last 10 overs is 2.20.

01.13 Eng 210-2
Australia are out to [16.00] again with England [1.20]. We would look to get with Australia with a back-to-lay for a profit when they take the new ball, keeping our fingers crossed for a couple of quick wickets.

01.04 Eng 206-2
Friend of the blog Chris Dennis says: "What about KP at 1.60 to get 50 worth laying? New ball due before he gets there and only reached 50 once in the series." Not a bad suggestion, although the new ball is about 12 overs away now so it wouldn't be right to have the wager on that rationale alone. He is looking more cosy now than he did at the start of his innings when he didn't look long for the pavilion.

01.00 Eng 202-2
We'll probably get another six overs in before the break. So England need 25 more to scupper us. That is a run rate of just over 4. We are relying on Kevin Pietersen and Jonathan Trott shutting up shop.

00.49 Eng 196-2
It would be fair to reckon that this MCG pitch will get easier to bat on as the day progresses. After all, Strauss and Cook looked serene when they were batting at the end of day one. Alas, there is not a great deal of value around on the top-bat market. Cook, with 82, is the man to beat. But there are some truly dreadful prices knocking about: Pietersen [3.30], Trott [3.50], Bell [8.00], Any Other [10.00]. Bell's price catches the eye I suppose although a few moments ago we were able to lay Cook at [2.50] - that was probably the wager. Bell is available at [2.14] for a 50, though.

00.43 Eng 193-2
So Mitchell Johnson is into the attack. Which one will it be? The Perth Johnson or the every-other-time-I've-seen-him-bowl Johnson. The latter is not a catchy moniker. There is swing though for Australia today so one would expect to be able to get bend like he did at the Waca. Johnson's problem is that his action is not a repeatable one, making it hard for him to consistently swing the ball. We'll settle for him keeping the runs down. Getting nervy about our session bet. Remember, anything under 227 and we win.

00.32 Eng 188-2
13 runs from Peter Siddle's previous over was not well received in this house. At least at Christmas time there are plenty of inanimate objects to take out one's fury on. The tree for example will take a fearful bashing if things go awry. I mean, it's only going to be thrown out in a few days anyway eh?

00.23 Eng 175-2
Kevin Pietersen is [2.20] for a 50. That does not the greatest wager I've ever heard of at the mo. He looks far from sure of himself. He has edged just shy of slip and seems to be playing along way from his body. Meanwhile, our session shout is looking good.

00.08 Eng 170-2
Australia into [10.00], England [1.24] and the draw [8.40]. Australia are doing what they had to. The pitch continues to offer seam, swing and bounce. Kevin Pietersen is the new man and he looks as edgy as ever. Not a convincing first couple of balls from him. Nice work from Siddle, though who is enjoying the murky conditions. A tricky session for England this. It's a battle, that's for sure.

WICKET 00.07 Eng 170-2
A Strauss c Hussey b Siddle 69

00.03 Eng 166-1
If England are to scupper our session runs bet they will have to be on 227 or more at sandwiches time.

24.00 Eng 163-1
Attritional stuff so far. I've had a look at the morning session runs market and reckon I've found a decent wager. We can lay 70 runs or more at around [1.80] (you may have to do some asking). By my reckoning we have a round 19 overs until lunch, which means England will have to at least treble their rate from 1.20rpo from the last 10 overs. There is a bit of seam and swing and in this series England have gone into their shells with three or four overs to go before the break. Shut up shop they do. Ask for [1.90] if nobody is biting.

23.51 Eng 159-1
Australia come into [17.50] with that wicket. Jonathan Trott is the new batsman. He is [2.20] for a 50.

WICKET 23.47 Eng 159-0
A Cook c Watson b Siddle 82

23.37 Eng 158-0
So what are our betting options? Well, as far as the match odds are concerned they hinge on Australia. With the hosts at 19.50, it is tempting to back them on the basis that a couple of quick wickets will allow us to lay off. But it is a damning indictment on this Australia side that I don't even trust them to manage that. At this stage of the game they will drift quickly so your timing needs to be spot on. In their favour, Andrew Strauss and Alastair Cook must start from scratch and bowling conditions are good.

23.33 Eng 157-0
I sense a bit of a defeatist attitude from Australia. At the start of play on day one the MCG was 95% full. Now it is only a third full.

23.26 Eng 157-0
"It's hard work from here. We're in a tough spot. We're behind the eight ball." Just a few clichés from Australia coach Tim Neilsen. He did say that the first two hours were crucial, though. That's important because if that has been instilled in the players (certain), then their heads could really drop if they do not make inroads early on.

23.24 Eng 157-0
Evening all. It's make or break time for Australia. A bad session here and the urn will be in England's backpack, ready for the journey home. Trailing by 59, Australia must get an an early breakthrough to hang onto England's coat tails and then keep taking them. A lead of 200 should probably do it for the tourists. Here are the prices: Australia [21.00], England [1.20] and the draw [8.00].

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