Live Blogs / Ed Hawkins / 27 November 2010 / 1

Ed Hawkins was poised to bring you the best bets through the night as England looked to hold off Australia's charge. Email him "here":mailto:hawkeyeview@hotmail.co.uk and follow him on Twitter "here":https://twitter.com/cricketbetting

CLOSE Eng 309-1
The match-odds market tells you all you need to know about the punting prospects for day five. Australia and England are [20.00] and [32.00] respectively with the draw [1.08]. It would take something utterly extraordinary for there to be a result and it would take a guesser to stake any cash now.

We can probably be sure that England will not declare and offer Australia a chase. That would be a huge gamble, and Andrew Strauss has never been a gambler. The risk would be too great in a Test where they looked beaten at the end of day three.

They have confirmed their reputation as the toughest side in the world. They may not be the most skilful, but they just do not know when they are beat. This suggests an attritional series is upon us.

That view is backed up by a toothless Australia attack. Think your gummy granny trying to bite into a Golden Delicious. Sure, England are not much better, so the prospect of a draw on a flatter Adelaide surface has to be very real.

06.24 Eng 295-1, lead by 74
Australia [15.00], England [30.00] and the draw [1.10]. Back in a wee while folks with the final wrap.

06.15 Eng 288-1
Michael Atherton was discussing earlier whether England would look to declare tomorrow. I just cannot see it. Why would England set Australia something like 260 in 40-odd overs having worked so hard to save the game? They surely wouldn't give the Aussies even a sniff of redemption. If they were 1-0 down with only two Tests to play, probably. But not in the first Test of an Ashes series. Far too important.

05.58 Eng 277-1
The series correct score market is worth a perusal at a time like this. There is a possibility that if this Test ends in a draw, we could be heading to Perth with the sides still tied at 0-0. The Adelaide Oval, venue for the next game, does have a reputation for results but so did the Gabba and it is no way near as helpful to the bowlers. It was an absolute road four years ago and only then did we get a winner thanks to the kind of psycholigical meltdown that you see in movies. The 0-0 correct score is [65.00]. It would be half that and then some if the first two Tests end in stalemate. A worthwhile trade.

05.41 Eng 267-1
Zzzzzzzz. I tell you what, folks, this is becoming a bit of a test in itself. Everest? Pah. I watched Cook and Trott at the Gabba in the minute hours. I'm making a cuppa to keep myself going. Also considering playing with matches, that will keep me alert. I think when you get a day like today it is very, very easy to wonder how either of these sides are going to take 20 wickets in this series. Adelaide is next up and that is flaaaaaaaat.

05.17 Eng 254-1
So Australia [6.60] as they get the cherry. I don't think bettors would take that in expectation of victory, just the desire for a trade with a couple of quick wickets. Can't say I would recommend such a course of action, though. Everything, and I mean everything, seems flat. Ricky Ponting even seems to be chewing his gum without vigour.

05.12 Eng 248-1
Century for Cook. His 14th overall and second against Australia. He is far from pretty but this was exactly what England required. He needs to go on, though. A big one, like Mike Hussey's, is the way.

05.09 Eng 244-1
Cook on 99 after the break. and the new ball is available for Australia. They really must make it count and I guess if we are inclined to back the hosts, now would be the most sensible time. Still, they look very ordinary with the ball and the dreadful form of Mitchell Johnson is a huge concern. Johnson is supposed to be their 'go-to' bowler.

TEA 04.40 Eng 238-1
Australia lead by only 17 now. England have chipped away nicely. Australia [6.20], England [24.00] and the draw [1.24].

04.13 Eng 200-1
Mitchell Johnson has come back into the attack, largely to see if he can remove new batsman Jonathan Trott. Trott and Cook are an isomniac's dream at this sort of hour. This could be arduous, folks.

03.57 Eng 188-1
Was just about to post that there remained an awful lot of cricket left in this Test, and despite the state of the pitch, and the Aussie bowling, we could get a result. Obviously the more likely is an Australia win. They are [5.10], whihch is surprisingly big. I thought they might be shorter after the breakthrough. A whopping 44 overs left to be bowled today. And England still trail by 33.

WICKET 03.54 Aus 188-1
A Strauss stumped Haddin b North 110

03.42 Eng 184-0
Australia look toothless with the ball. Of course, the last time I wrote something like that Peter Siddle promptly took a hat-trick. Siddle is on now. Geez, he looks average. It is almost fascinating to watch him bowl, staring goggle-eyed at the screen to work out how he did it.

03.26 Eng 179-0
What happened to the huge fissures in the pitch which were going to make it a minefield? Not having much impact. I did ask a Queenslander today what he thought of the surface and he said that it always happens at the Gabba, it's just that England usually don't last this long to find out.

03.09 Eng 165-0
Ton for Strauss. His first in Australia. His 19th overall. And he becomes the seventh England player In Test history to make three figures after a duck in first-innings.

02.55 150-0
Strauss (90) has apparently not been affected by the lunch break, when it can so often upset a batsman's concentration. A straight drive over the head of Xavier Doherty was the shot of the day. Of course, Strauss has a poor record in the first Test of a series as leader, averaging only 37 before this game. And, would you believe, he had never scored a 50 in the first Test of a major series.

02.39 Eng 135-0
I smashed something. Over it now. So what to do in this next session? I can't help but reckon Australia have drifted too much and the draw has shortened too quickly. The key to any back of Australia is timing. Now could be the time. We have seen the market slow after going off like a rocket in the first session. Runs are not bringing the draw down as sharply. Australia have had time to regoup and, of course, they still lead by 86.

LUNCH 02.00 Eng 135-0
Furious at lunch. England reduced to a crawl. And they fall five runs short of 139, our session target. Uueeegh. Disgusted by that. [3.90] Australia, [20.00] England and the draw [1.43].

01.52 Eng 130-0
England need nine for our session wager. Come on! They're leaving it late. Eight minutes until lunch. I don't think they're going to do it, I don't think they're going to do it, I don't think they're going to do it.

01.39 Eng 122-0
Strauss is dropped by Mitchell Johnson. The moustache was bad enough but that makes him look even more ridiculous. Should have taken it. Our session wager is going great guns. Now officially [1.01]. England need 139 or more before the break remember.

01.20 Eng 104-0
The runs continue to flow as the ton comes up. Australia are [2.84], England [15.00] and the draw [1.66]. And that session bet we mentioned is going nicely. Into [3.50] currently. England need another 35 before 02.00. England's run rate is 4.60 over the last 10. So ... value.

01.14 Eng 92-0
50 for Strauss. He's looked better than Cook. Not a big statement though, is it? A bit like saying Kate Moss would get it over one of the Hairy Bikers.

01.07 Eng 83-0
In 17 overs England have scored 63 runs. That's a rate of 3.7 runs per over. We could get another 14 overs before lunch. If they continue at that rate, they will score 52 runs, a total of 113 runs for the session. You can back 110 runs or more for the session at [2.25] or 120 runs or more at a whopping [4.00]. Not a bad wager that given the gulf between the two. Much will depend on how Xavier Doherty fares in a quest to becalm England.

01.00 Eng 82-0
I'm still interested by the draw shortening. It's becoming an obsession. The next segment of 27 runs (remember that's how many it took to reduce the stalemate by a whole point) saw it trade at [2.10], a reduction of 0.4. Now that's what I call a stat at one o'clock in the morning. Stay with me.

00.45 Eng 70-0
Regular readers of this blog will know that I'm not a big fan of Alastair Cook. The batsman. I'm sure he's a super chap. It is his dreadful technique which gets me. And I find it difficult to keep coming up with new ways to describe his appalling foot movement. Then I found this "hilarious video":https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M-9wjbgWgJM. It gets particularly amusing at 00.36.

00.33 Eng 58-0
They have a saying in Australia. "Too easy, mate". They say it when you ask the time, hand them a loaf of bread or utter any banal staement. But not if you give them a sudoku puzzle interestingly. Essentially they're simpletons. No matter. We can apply this well-worn phrase ourselves now by laying off our draw bet. It has been astonishingly simple. It has fallen through the floor to [2.30]. Profits.

00.23 Eng 46-0
Really, really interesting. A whole point has come off the draw price now. It is [2.50] to lay. So, the equation on day four is... 27 wicketless runs = -1pt on draw. Be interesting to see if this equation works in 27 runs time. providing England haven't lost a wicket, of course.

00.16 Eng 45-0
It doesn't take much. The draw is [2.70] to lay after only 26 runs scored. What a fickle beast it is.

23.51 Eng 20-0
Let's get straight into it then. We'll have a back of the draw please with a view to laying off. It is [3.50]. We are expecting England to bat better than they did on day one. They are a side who seem to thrive when under the pump and they have a good record of frustrating teams. Of course, there is the added bonus that the odds are likely to contract quite quickly, possibly out of line with what is happening on the field. I'm talking big reductions for small partnerships.

23.46 Eng 19-0
Ahoy. Nicely ensconced in the sofa, which beneath me is beginning to replicate my slumped form. We have another early start because of the rain on day two. England are in a dreadful hole. They don't deserve to be. But what's that got to do with anything? Plenty of betting opportunities shouuld present themselves tonight so stick around.

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1. Nick | 28 November 2010

   Great shout, Ed.

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