England / Ed Hawkins / 20 December 2010 /

Ed Hawkins takes a look at the top bowler markets as form and fitness worries for England provide potential betting options

It doesn't take much for doubt to creep in between the ears. England, cocky and confident (perhaps too much?), after bowling out Australia for 268 in the first-innings in Perth and with a clear path towards retaining the urn, suddenly lost their way. Now everyone wants to give them directions.

Andrew Strauss insists there will be no panic - a sly dig at the Australia hand-wringing after the first two Tests - but that does not mean he will not be worried. The batting collapse in the first innings was understandable because of the way Mitchell Johnson bent the ball. It wasn't in the second, though. That was gutless.

Of most concern to Strauss will be the form of Graeme Swann, the best spin bowler in the world who was supposed to prove the difference between the sides. He has taken 11 wickets so far in the series. It is a perfectly adequate number and with Australia's three spinners (Xavier Doherty, Marcus North and Steve Smith) mustering four between them, he remains a clear advantage.

However, something was not right with Swann in Perth. In the second innings he bowled only nine overs - his first four going for 24 - and he dropped a simple catch at cover when, oddly, his teammates refused to console him.

Could it be that he is suffering a crisis from confidence induced by Strauss' own lack of faith? So worried that Australia will attack Swann, Strauss posts defensive fields nullifying his most potent weapon. Often at the Waca there were four or five fielders on the fence which allowed Australia to pick off singles and twos at will.

With Swann criminally underused, England's pacemen had to get through more work and they now looked jaded. James Anderson, who seemed to be affected by jetlag, should have been capable of matching Johnson for swing while Steven Finn is expected to be dropped for the fourth Test at the MCG. Tim Bresnan, who would bolster the batting in the absence of Stuart Broad, is favourite to come in while Ajmal Shahzad, his Yorkshire teammate, is also in contention.

If Finn, who with 14 wickets is the leading wicket-taker in the series, is dropped then Swann should be a shoo-in for top England bowler. But at [2.13] he is approaching his pre-series odds of [2.30]. Anderson, who is [4.00], is one wicket ahead while Tremlett is only three wickets behind.

Tremlett could well be the wager at prices ranging from [7.00] to [8.00]. The wickets in Melbourne and Sydney are expected to be altered to try to replicate England's fallibility on the quick and bouncy Perth strip. Negating turn for Swann is a sub plot.

Australia did not give Smith, their legspinner, a single over at the Waca. That is a big hint as to how they want the rest of the wickets to play. It means Ryan Harris and Johnson are expected to be taking the bulk of the wickets.

Harris, who we tipped for top Australia bowler at [5.60], has a two-wicket lead over Johnson on 11 wickets and at [5.30] for overall top bowler he looks value. Johnson is [5.60]. The favourite remains Swann at [3.35].

Recommended bet: back R Harris for top Ashes bowler at [5.30]

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