Ashes Diary / Ed Hawkins / 19 December 2010 /

Ed Hawkins said at the start of the series it would be tight and an Australia victory in Perth this morning means we should all remember one of betting's most important mantras: let the price be our guide

The Ashes has started then. About time. Recent series - aside from the forgotten whitewash four years ago - have been all about ebb, flow, twists and turns between two sides who couldn't be separated by tracing paper.

Up until lunch on day two at the Waca, it looked as though England would spoil the status quo, denying fans the ding-dong tussle that so many had predicted. But now with Australia having made a comeback which is Christ-like in its proportions, the battle is back on.

With momentum shifting between two teams, it can be very difficult for the
bettor to remain rational. After Adelaide, one could be forgiven for thinking England would claim a comprehensive victory. A humiliation, perhaps. Indeed, Darren Gough and Michael Holding, commentators from different parts of the spectrum, both said Australia would not win a Test.

Now, it is England who are looking suspect. Their batting has been exposed, Stuart Broad has left a bigger hole than expected and the focus is on who they will drop, rather than the selectorial guessing game that Australia have been playing.

It is best to try to ignore the mainstream media at times like this. Had you listened to them after the second Test you would have done your money on an England whitewash. Listen to them now and you'll be putting your money on a 3-1 Australia win before game four at Melbourne on Boxing Day.

The truth is possibly that England are not as good as their Adelaide victory suggested. Or that Australia are not as bad. The pre-series assertion that the two sides were both average and closely-matched seems to be about right.

On the English morning of day three, one punter got in touch with me on Twitter to say: "Aussies have proven you emphatically wrong in this Test. Can you honestly still make England series favourites?"

It is difficult to answer such a poser, which sums up the frustration quite nicely of the average Joe, when you have only 140 characters, so it is worth exploring here in more detail.

Quite simply with the series poised as it is - remember it is one Test each, that is all - then making one side favourite over the other would seem erroneous. After three Tests they cannot be separated.

Of course, the match odds market will have to make one team a jolly. Our job is then to disagree with that. The prices have to be our guide. When you have a contest between two evenly-matched sides, you bet on the one who is priced the biggest. That is basics. And it was highlighted on this website before a ball had even been bowled.

At the moment, that is England. They are outsiders at [3.05] to win at the MCG with Australia [2.62]. They are outsiders at [3.00] to win the series with Australia [2.60]. And it will always be England. Even for Perth they struggled to maintain favourite status with the sides only 0.5 points apart before the toss. After it, Australia were jollies again.

With pitches at Melbourne and the SCG expected to be seamer friendly, it would be wise to reckon the series will be decided by which side handles swing better. Historically, with bat and ball, that should be the tourists.

In short, if you have backed Andrew Strauss' side for glory, laid Australia to do the same, or even had a 2-2 correct score bet, you still have a perfectly good wager.

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