2010-11 Ashes Betting / Ralph Ellis / 30 December 2010 /

The Ashes have been retained and if Australia are to level the series in Sydney, they'll have to do so without Ricky Ponting. The smart money is on England to make it 3-1 though and only complacency or lack of concentration will stop them from doing so...

Now I know we've been here before. Just before the Perth Test I was smugly writing that Australia couldn't possibly take 20 wickets, and my 'available to bet' balance is still suffering the very serious consequences. So it's rather scary to start making the same sort of sweeping judgement about what might happen in Sydney.

But as things stand this morning the Aussies couldn't be in a bigger state of disarray yet England, having just won an Ashes Test match by the biggest margin since 1956, are still healthy odds against at [2.5] this morning. Yes, I know you shouldn't chase losses, but this one looks far too much value to miss out on.

Everything that can go wrong for Australia is still doing so. Ricky Ponting confirmed overnight that he'll definitely not be fit to play, with scans on his injured left little finger confirming the 36-year-old has almost certainly worn the Baggy Green as captain for the very last time. We already knew that Ryan Harris was out after he limped from the field in Melbourne. We also know the Aussies don't have a spinner worthy of the name on a Sydney wicket which nearly always turns (incidentally that makes Graeme Swann worth backing at [4.3] to overhaul Jimmy Anderson as England's top wicket taker).

That leaves the home country gambling on a debut for 26-year-old Usman Khawaja. He has a first class batting average higher than 50, but will have to deal with the circus of being the first Muslim to represent Australia as well as handling the nerves of a Test debut on his home ground. In the bowling attack they'll have to go back to Doug Bollinger, who was unceremoniously axed after going for nearly five an over in two miserable days at Adelaide.

Michael Clarke will take over the captaincy, a case of swapping one hopelessly out of form batsman for another. Clarke did get 80 in Adelaide, but in six other trips to the crease he's collected just 68 and when his team needed somebody to score big runs to save the game in Melbourne he never looked remotely as if he believed he could do it.

It seems to me that the only people who can stop England completing a series win are the England players themselves. And there you have to hope they learned the painful lessons of Perth, where they went into the game talking merrily about becoming the number one Test team in the world and then batted like a school 2nd XI.

It was encouraging to hear Andrew Strauss talking in terms of wanting to win in Sydney almost as soon as his team had confirmed they would retain the Ashes by wrapping up the Melbourne match. And good to know, also, that he'd given the same message in a dressing room huddle before he'd told the media.

Here's hoping the rest of the team are just as committed. And if so then [2.5] for a side that has not just beaten but thrashed its opponents twice in the last three matches is just too good to turn down.

Five things you might not know about Usman Khawaja

1.Born December 1986 in Islamabad, he was three when father Tariq, who worked for the Pakistan air force, moved the family (he has two elder brothers) to Sydney.

2.As a boy he used to wait outside the Sydney Cricket Ground when Tests or One Day games were on. then rush in to watch the last ten overs for free

3. He was voted player of the year in the 2005 Australian Under 19 Championship, and then opened for the Aussies in the Under 19 World Cup in Sri Lanka

4.He studied for a degree in aviation at the University of South Wales - and then gained a pilot's licence

5. He'll be the man to lead the singing if Australia do square the series - he's a good guitar player. His favourite band is Guns N' Roses

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