2009 Ashes / Ed Hawkins / 29 June 2009 / Leave a comment " class="free-bet-btn" rel="external" onclick="javascript: pageTracker._trackPageview('/G4/inline-freebet');" target="_blank">Free Bet

Ed Hawkins analyses the top Australia batsman and bowler markets and reckons the visiting skipper is overrated

As if to highlight the small degrees of separation between the Ashes teams in terms of ability, there are similarities between England's and Australia's top-bat and bowler markets. England's top-bat list was dominated by a bad favourite in Kevin Pietersen while James Anderson appeared to be a shoo-in to take most wickets. The situation is the same with Australia.

Ricky Ponting is a man you would oppose with an audible gulp but it is necessary that he is avoided at [4.30] to finish as top Australia runscorer. With his reputation as Mr Reliable slipping, it is bowler Mitchell Johnson, [2.82] for top Australia wicket-taker, who has no peers.

But first the problems with Ponting. A stellar batsman he may be but value he is not. The Australia skipper has top-scored only once in his side's last five series (an identical record to Pietersen's) and that was against West Indies. Granted he outscored his teammates with 576 runs in the last Ashes series but in the last 12 months his average is down to 39, a huge dip from a career mark of 56.

With Ponting marginalised, Phillip Hughes and Simon Katich should join him on our betting sidelines. The openers have enough doubts about their respective techniques anyway but traditionally visiting Nos 1 and 2 struggle in England. Only three have top scored in the last 10 Test series, a damning statistic as to how tourists have struggled to cope with the moving new ball.

It makes both men impossible to support, leaving Michael Clarke [5.80] and Michael Hussey [8.20] solid shouts. Both have plenty experience of English conditions due to stints in county cricket, although one is in much better touch than the other.
It is Clarke who most impresses. He top scored for Australia in the home defeat to South Africa with 383 runs and was the No 1 in a preceding series against New Zealand, conditions as close to England as you can get.

Often criticised for not taking a game away from the opposition, Clarke could be considered to be underrated. It is often forgotten that he scored an impressive 355 runs against England in the 2005 defeat when his nickname of Pup could not have been more apt.
Hussey, despite being certain to feel at home and with 458 runs in the last Ashes, averages only 29 this year and his confidence could have taken a hit.

There is no such concern about Johnson, whose century and a 90-odd against South Africa will make him almost as dangerous with bat as ball. He is a worthy favourite for top wicket-taker, however. The left-armer has finished as Australia's top bowler in each of their last four series and with 20 wickets is the joint-second highest wicket-taker this year in Tests with Peter Siddle.

It is not only statistics that excites about Johnson's price. It is England's record against left-armers. Remember when Zaheer Khan wrecked them two summers ago? Remember when he did the same in India last year? Zaheer finished top bowler each time (shared with Harbhajan in his home series) and England's batsmen have a clear weakness.

Looking at the bowlers who have finished as their team's top wicket-taker in previous series in England provides another trend. Fidel Edwards, Morne Morkel, Zaheer and Umar Gul are all linked by extreme pace. Johnson can send down 90mph thunderbolts.

Brett Lee could come in for support as a result at [4.70]. Fair enough. He took 20 wickets in 2005 and 20 in 2006-07 and in what could be his last hurrah he will leave no muscle unstretched to rediscover that extra bit of pace.

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