Twenty20 / Tobias Gourlay / 02 May 2010 /

Sri Lanka can afford nothing less than a convincing win over Zimbabwe, who beat both Pakistan and Australia in recent warm-up matches. Tobias Gourlay looks at whether lightning can strike thrice.

Venue & Conditions

The Caribbean at large has hosted very few international Twenty20 games. Ahead of this tournament, the average run-rate was 6.44. On Friday, in the first T20 internationals ever played at Providence, Guyana, first-innings scores of 135/6 and 138/9 by Sri Lanka and the West Indies hardly improved that figure.

Team News

Sri Lanka lost their opening match of the tournament to New Zealand on Friday, which means they must win this match to stand a chance of qualifying for the Super Eight. The margin of defeat was narrow (the Kiwis had only one ball to spare) and it's not clear whether or not changes will be made. The star players mostly had a good time of it in the IPL - Tillakaratne Dilshan is the obvious exception - and Suresh Raina's continuation of his brilliant form into this tournament suggests that might count for something.

Zimbabwe's players can at least regard themselves as fresh in comparison. They beat Pakistan and Australia in warm-ups, but lost to West Indies A. The readmission to the team of all-rounders Craig Ervine (don't get caught out thinking it's Sean) and Andy Blignaut makes them a bit stronger than they have been for a while.

Match Odds

Sri Lanka are favourites, of course, and hardly worth backing at [1.18]. Zimbabwe's recent ODI record suggests there's not much value in their [6.2] price. Although they're too good to be mere associate members of the ICC - they lost only 1/10 to Kenya last year - they don't yet deserve full status because they won only 4/14 against Bangladesh. November's 200-run 50-over defeat to South Africa doesn't help their cause.

Top Batsman

Kumar Sangakkara and Mahela Jayawardene, who came into good form towards the end of the IPL, lead Sri Lanka's Top Batsman market. Jayawardene ([3.55]), who won the market on Friday, is a slight favourite because he opens. For reasons given below, Tillakaratne Dilshan ([4.4]) is best avoided.

Batting at No. 5, Elton Chigumbura biffed 76 from 35 balls against Australia and from No. 7 he made 49* against Pakistan. The recent form of those higher up Zimbabwe's order is modest and Sri Lanka's powerful bowling attack should ensure he gets a go sooner rather than later.

Masakadza v Dilshan

Tillakaratne Dilshan's performances at the last T20 World Cup are still easily and regularly recalled. His more recent efforts at the IPL, where he averaged 7.33 from six innings (two ducks, a top score of 17), won't stand even such a short test of time. Since arriving in the Caribbean he's managed a golden duck and a 19-ball three. With a +0.5-run head-start, you'll find one of Zimbabwe's openers at odds-against in their head-to-head market - is Hamilton Masakadza the goose laying the golden egg?

Trivia

In the 2007 World Cup, Lasith Malinga became the first bowler ever to take four wickets in four balls of international cricket. He did it at Providence against South Africa, finishing with figures of 4-54 from 9.2 overs.

Tobias Gourlay Says: Back Elton Chigumbura at [6.2] to be Top Zimbabwe Batsman

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