Twenty20 / Tobias Gourlay / 09 May 2010 /

Tobias Gourlay will be up bright and early for Monday morning's crunch game between Pakistan and South Africa.

Venue and Conditions

The Beausejour Cricket Ground at Gros Islet, St Lucia, is pretty new and this tournament is the first time it has seen international Twenty20 action. Four matches so far have been pretty high-scoring, seeing first innings totals of 118 (that was Afghanistan), 172, 186 and 191. The upward trend, whether significant or not, won't have passed you by.

Team News

Recent defeats might have dented Pakistan's confidence, but the players in the team for the last match are easily talented enough for this condensed form of cricket and will probably get another go. If they are to make an unlikely claim on one of the semi-final places, they must win Monday's early game and improve their net run-rate, then hope England beat New Zealand.

South Africa, who could also use a win after Saturday's defeat to England, have a pretty settled team too. Loots Bosman was used earlier in the tournament, but Graeme Smith now prefers Jacques Kallis as his opening partner. The good economy of Dale Steyn and Johan Botha and the numerous wickets of Charl Langeveldt and Morne Morkel mean there are no foreseeable changes among the bowlers.

Match Odds

What to do with an enigma like Pakistan? Make them [2.48] outsiders. The importance of the toss - of batting first, at least - in this tournament has been noticed already: 11/14 fully completed matches have been won by the team batting first. They are one of the few teams to have lost after batting first, but at their current price you could reasonably punt on Pakistan winning the toss (they've a 50-50 chance after all) or you can wait until the penny has dropped and take the team that's run off to pad up.

Top Batsman

The returns of Jacques Kallis, the second highest run-scorer in this year's IPL and the [3.8] leader in the Top South Africa Batsman market, are diminishing: 73, 34, 31, 11. Mr Average is becoming just that. After missing most of the IPL through injury, opener Graeme Smith has not convinced this tournament. The market is muddied by the floating presence of Albie Morkel, but initially (tee-hee) AB de Villiers and JP Duminy might be the value options at [6] and [8] respectively.

Only Mahela Jayawardene has scored more runs this tournament than Pakistan opener Salman Butt, who is the [4] favourite in their Top Batsman market. Inconsistency, naturally, characterises the form of his compatriots in the top- and middle-order.

Most Sixes

Mr Average is not an entirely fair moniker for Kallis, who has taken more risks in this tournament than he did on the Subcontinent last month. He has hit eight sixes in four innings so far. Albie Morkel (seven) and de Villiers (six) are not far behind. The Proteas will probably start as favourites in the Most Sixes market, but that's exactly as it should be and anything better than [1.9] will make them a value bet.

Trivia

As a Pakistan academician, Salman Butt once belted 233 against a South African academy side.

Tobias Gourlay Says: Back Pakistan at [2.48] to beat South Africa (if they bat first)

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