Twenty20 / Ed Hawkins / 06 May 2010 /

South Africa were well-fancied before the tournament began but in the second match of the Super Eights, Ed Hawkins reckons the Kiwis are worth chancing with the toss so important

Team news
South Africa made changes for the game against Afghanistan, replacing the overweight Rory Kleinveldt with Charl Langevdeldt. That should increase confidence about the Proteas but they still need to trim one more.

Loots Bosman has scored eight runs in two innings, including a duck against Afghainstan, and should be replaced by Herschelle Gibbs. That allows South Africa to pair Jacques Kallis and Graeme Smith in the opening berths. A fearsome prospect.

Nathan McCullum took three wickets against Zimbabwe in New Zealand's last outing after opening the bowling. It would be a surprise if his off-breaks were asked to kick things off against a more powerful line-up. By the way, New Zealand are one of only two teams (England are the other) who can claim to bat all the way down to No 10.

Venue and conditions
Showers are forecast for Bridgetown but they are expected to be only light so the D-L Method may not be required. The wicket is slow and low, a view borne out by Australia and South Africa struggling for runs against weak opposition. Australia and South Africa could manage only 6.1 and 6.9 runs per over respectively.

Match odds
Have a scan of the New Zealand squad list and it reads well for a tournament which is far more open than first thought. With the wickets as they are and the toss vital (it is seven wins from 11 for the side batting first), such a team of grafters could go far.

They are [2.28] to beat South Africa, who are [1.77]. If you believe that this is a toss match, and you probably should, then the Kiwis have to be the value, especially with South Africa flattering to deceive.

Granted Smith's men have had the opportunity to get used to the ground, but if New Zealand can bat first, Daniel Vettori's class spin, Scott Styris, with his wobblers, and the pace of Shane Bond will all worry South Africa in a chase.

Featured market
There is cracking value on the innings runs markets. Whichever side bats first, lay them to make 150 or more at round even money.

Top batsman
We'll swerve hitters like Smith, Brendon McCullum and Jesse Ryder if it's all the same to you, thanks. Look at who scored the runs in the two games at Bridgetown on Wednesday. Kallis, JP Duminy, Albie Morkel, Mike Hussey, Steven Smith. All nudges or lower-order sloggers. For both sides, Any Other Batsman, which is anyone outside the respective top fives, at [4.60] makes great appeal.

Trivia
Jacob Oram, the Kiwi allrounder, considered amputating a broken finger so he could play in the last World Cup in the Caribbean.

Ed Hawkins says: back New Zealand at [2.28]

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