Twenty20 / Ed Hawkins / 12 May 2010 /

England have made their first semi-final for 18 years but they must overcome a Sri Lanka outfit who have given them fearful beatings in one-day cricket. Can they do it? Ed Hawkins reckons they might do a bit better than that.

Team news
After his most important delivery, Kevin Pietersen returns for England at the expense of Ravi Bopara in their first semi-final in a global tournament since the World Cup in 1992. KP, a new father, would have probably been cheering on their opponents, South Africa, in that game when he was a youngster.

Michael Lumb and Craig Kieswetter, his fellow South Africans may have been doing the same. However, the trio have transformed the England batting at the top of the order, making them a threat in powerplay overs for the first time in years.

Of course, Eoin Morgan underpins it all in the middle order while England are the only side in the tournament to bat all the way down to No 10. Ryan Sidebottom, something of a success story, should keep James Anderson out.

If England have been settled, Pietersen apart, Sri Lanka have been rocked. They have had to re-scheme their line-up. Out have gone Muttiah Muralitharan (injury) and Ajantha Mendis (dropped) while the batting order has been changed to accommodate an out of form Tillakaratne Dilshan.

It would be a surprise if Mendis did not play against England. Only five of their side have seen him in international cricket before and England have a history of problems against mystery spin.

Venue and conditions
The Beausejour stadium is a trend bucker. Only seven sides have won batting second in 23 completed matches in the tournament - four have come at Gros Islet. England and Sri Lanka were responsible for two of them, in their most recent outings against New Zealand and India respectively.

Batting has looked relatively easy. The first innings scores read: 115, 172, 186, 191, 148, 149, 163 and 105 giving an average of 154. Of the 10 wickets which fell in Sri Lanka's victory over India, only one was to a spinner. That will please England.

Match odds
Such has been England's impact on this tournament (along with Australia they have been the best side), that they enjoy favourite status against Sri Lanka, so often a one-day nemesis. The Lankans have turned the lights out on England for some of their darkest hours in limited-overs cricket - a five-wicket hammering in the 1996 World Cup semi-final and a 5-0 whitewash in a 50-over series in 2006.

England edge it at [1.93] with Sri Lanka [2.06]. The natural reaction is to reckon that Sri Lanka are the value. If they bat first, post 150 and then put their spinners to work then surely they will triumph? It's not as simple as that any more. England were woeful at chasing in this format before the tournament began but they have healed the weakness, in large part to Morgan's brilliance at finding the gaps and manoeuvring the field.

Sri Lanka have been considerably less convincing. They have been heavily reliant on Mahela Jayawardene and of the other batters, only Kumar Sangakkara would concern England. One could argue that Sri Lanka are confused as to what their best line-up is.

Unsurprisingly, England are ahead of Sri Lanka in the tournament outright at [4.20]. That looks a decent wager, especially as they look best equipped to usurp potential finalists Australia on a bouncy Bridgetown wicket in the showpiece.

Featured market
The highest individual score in England and Sri Lanka's two matches at Gros Islet was 46. Going under 68.5 could pay off.

Top batsman
In an endorsement that Twenty20 is a format which can be dominated by one man, there are only three men who have form for top-bat honours: Jayawardene, Pietersen and Morgan.

The trio have dominated the runscorer lists for their sides. Jayawardene is top of the overall tournament tree with 292 runs while Morgan and Pietersen are the only two have top scored in an individual innings in the competition for England. Morgan has top scored three times and Pietersen once. The duo also have recent form against Sri Lanka. In the last five 50-over games (England lead 3-2), Morgan and Pietersen have top-bat honours.

Trivia
Although England have upset the formbook, the eagle-eyed will spot that Australia and Sri Lanka are on a collision course for a repeat of the last 50-over World Cup final played in the Caribbean.

Ed Hawkins says: back England to win World Twenty20 at [4.20]

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