World Twenty20 Betting: England v New Zealand

Twenty20 / Tobias Gourlay / 09 May 2010 /

" class="free_bet_btn" rel="external" onclick="javascript: pageTracker._trackPageview('/G4/inline-freebet');" target="_blank">

Daniel Vettori showed his batsman what they should be doing against Pakistan.

" England are [1.76] to make it three wins out of three in their Super Eight group (of four). Since there's a 50% chance they'll lose the toss (and be asked to field) they should be more like evens, as should the Black Caps, who are [2.24] and therefore the value bet. A safer option is to wait until after the toss, then back the team that bats first."

Even if Kevin Pietersen doesn't, Tobias Gourlay will stick around for Monday's afternoon match between England and New Zealand.

Venue and Conditions

The Beausejour Cricket Ground at Gros Islet, St Lucia, is pretty new and this tournament is the first time it has seen international Twenty20 action. Four matches so far have been pretty high-scoring, seeing first innings totals of 118 (that was Afghanistan), 172, 186 and 191. The upward trend won't have passed you by, but you might like to check the result of Monday's early game between Pakistan and South Africa to determine if it is still extant.

Team News

Kevin Pietersen's wife is labouring without him and England might do the same now that he's gone back home to see her. His most likely replacement is Ravi Bopara, who showed a bit of form in a warm-up game prior to the tournament. Pietersen has done more work than most to get England to the top of the group, but everyone else has done enough to keep their places in the team.

New Zealand's batsmen are struggling. Jesse Ryder is averaging 21.00, but has scored more than anyone else. Captain Daniel Vettori pushed himself up the order against Pakistan and might consider changes for this match. Kyle Mills and Ian Butler were changes last time and did enough to merit another game ahead of Jacob Oram and Tim Southee.

Match Odds

At the time of writing, 13/16 matches completed in full at this tournament have been won by the team batting first. England are [1.76] to make it three wins out of three in their Super Eight group (of four). Since there's a 50% chance they'll lose the toss (and be asked to field) they should be more like evens, as should the Black Caps, who are [2.24] and therefore the value bet. A safer option is to wait until after the toss, then back the team that bats first.

Remember also that England don't have Pietersen and that St Lucia has a reputation for spin-friendliness. England have Graeme Swann and Michael Yardy, but New Zealand have Daniel Vettori, who has the best T20 economy rate of any spinner who has sent down 40 overs or more in his career.

Top Batsman

In Pietersen's absence, the openers lead the Top England Batsman market. Ravi Bopara will likely take Pietersen's place at No. 3 and is on offer at [5.4].

New Zealand have been involved in a string of low-scoring matches. None of their batsmen could reasonably claim to be in good form. If Vettori is up the order again, the value will lie with Any Other Batsman at [5.5].

Ryder v McCullum

Brendon McCullum might be the Roberto Carlos of T20 cricket. The Brazilian footballer secured a career-long reputation as a free-kick specialist with one remarkable effort. The Kiwi 'keeper has a superstar reputation on the strength of his 158* in the first-ever IPL game. He showed up late and was rubbish in this season's tournament. In the Caribbean he has 61 runs from four innings. Jesse Ryder looks in better nick and should be available somewhere close to evens with a 0.5-run head start.

Trivia

In January this year Eion Morgan was the only England player to be offered a new contract at the IPL auction for the third season.

Tobias Gourlay Says: Back New Zealand at [2.24] to beat England (if they bat first)

'.$sign_up['title'].'

'; } } ?>