World Twenty20 Betting: Australia v Sri Lanka

Twenty20 / Ed Hawkins / 08 May 2010 / 1

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Warner warning

"It could be country characteristics rather than statistical trends which decide this game"

Ed Hawkins reckons the Lankans could be bounced out in Bridgetown, especially without their most potent weapon to defend them.

Team news
Muttiah Muralitharan is a major doubt for not only this match but the rest of the tournament after he irritated his groin injury in the win over West Indies. Why he was playing we don't know but the Lankans are likely to have to go with Suraj Randiv, the 25-year-old allrounder.

Tillakaratne Dilshan, the player of the tournament in the last World Twenty20, is on a horrible run and was demoted to the middle-order with Sanath Jayasuriya back to open. Still, with Mahela Jaywardene in imperious form, they have not missed Dilshan.

Australia are beginning to look like a powerhouse. At the top of the order, Shane Watson and David Warner are pulverising teams. "I believe we have the best two openers in Twenty20 cricket in the world at the moment," Michael Clarke said. Amen to that.

Venue and conditions
Light rain is forecast but it should not dampen the surface significantly enough to reduce the threat of pace and bounce from fast men who really bend their backs. The average score batting first at Bridgetown so far (excluding West Indies v India) is 163. That is a decent stat to remember when wagering on the first-innings score market.

Match odds
Again we defer to the record of the side batting first (11 wins from 15 so far), although it could be country characteristics rather than statistical trends which decide this game.

Australia are often vulnerable against spin and against Sri Lanka at Nottingham last year they were badly exposed. The spinners tie the Aussies in knots and they just can't unpick the tangle in time.

However, Sri Lanka's weakness is pace and bounce and with the Bridgetown surface displaying both, they could be on the receiving end particularly with master weaver Murali missing.

Respect the toss bias but if you must have a bet before the flip, Australia at [1.63] would get the nod. Sri Lanka are [2.30].

Featured market
Almost 50 per cent of Australia's runs (90) came in sixes in their crushing of India. They hit 16 in total which would suggest they are a must on the most sixes match-up.

Top batsman
Do you dare take on Jayawardene, who has 279 runs and has top-scored three out of three? He is as skinny as [3.00]. Watson and Warner are [3.00] and [4.00] respectively.

Trivia
Bad news for Sri Lanka. Australia have bowled 80 short balls in the tournament for just 89 runs, producing eight wickets.

Ed Hawkins says: back Australia most sixes at [1.80] or better

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(1)

Viraj | 08 May 2010

i accept dilshan is in such a bad form . and jayasu's time is now over . but all r getting very harsh on sri lankan rest of batsman except mahela . but i think its wrong . t20 is a jst 20 over game , so , when one batmen playing well and established , others have to go for the big shots . this is the exactly what happened with , sanga , chandimal , kapu , mathews , . Mahela is not a big big hitter of the ball , so , when he playing well in last 10 overs , others must go for the big shots , and they'll miss out their natural game play . players like kapu,mathews , always came in after 16th over . so theirs only option is to hit from the first ball . its not very easy , even then , kapu scored prety gud with some sixes . i think all (including SL cricket board) r getting this very wrong and putting extra presser on SL team .

1st match vs Nz - we lost becauze dilis (19 ball 3 run) poor form and Nerthen Macculums superb batting in last over . even then it was very close game .and NZ is
one of the top sides .

2nd match vs ZIM - Becauze of rain we only won it by 14 . if not rain we should have won by very big margin .

3rd match vs WI - We showed every buddy about over real position , but again its mahela and rest of them had to be pinch hitters . so again other batsman except sanga didnt got much of chance .

this is the story so far , but i have seen these words in lot of articales ," SL unimpressive performence , patchy performence " , ect (almost every article ) .