Twenty20 World Cup / Ed Hawkins / 30 May 2009 / 1

The World Twenty20, which starts at Lord's on Friday with England taking on the Netherlands, will be the most viewed cricket tournament of all time. Ed Hawkins explains how bettors can profit from the tournament...

Fans in 218 countries will tune in to the World Twenty20 and no doubt the majority of the millions will not have a clue which team is going to emerge victorious.

Armchair punters can be forgiven for feeling bewildered at the choices in front of them. Can [4.40] champions India defend their crown? Are Australia, trading at [6.00], due to assert their dominance in the format? Will South Africa [5.50] be propelled by players who dominated in the IPL? Or can England [12.50], Sri Lanka [9.60] or New Zealand [11.50] bridge the gap?

One could spend hours pondering the strengths and weaknesses of those teams as well as Pakistan, West Indies and Bangladesh. At the end of the study period most likely you will discover that each of them have the players capable of implementing the formula for Twenty20 success. Since the format's inception in 2003, the teams that have succeeded have all had gun batsman at the top of the order to make the most of the six-over powerplay, at least one canny spinner to strangle the run rate and a death bowler capable of spearing yorkers.

But all that could be irrelevant without first looking at how it all works. Those clever folks at the ICC have produced a projected draw which provides enormous help for punters trying to find a winner.

Thanks to the schedule we have a reasonably solid idea of how the two Super Eight groups will look after the 12 teams have done battle in four preliminary groups.

Group A will consist of India, Bangladesh and Ireland, Group B England, Holland and Pakistan, Group C Australia, West Indies and Sri Lanka and Group D South Africa, Scotland and New Zealand.

The top two from each of those sections will then be split into two groups of four. And this is where it gets useful. If the groups were to be dominated by those strongest in the outright market then they would look like this:

Group E
India
England
Australia
South Africa

Group F
Pakistan
Bangladesh
Sri Lanka
New Zealand

The winners of these two groups play the runners-up in the opposite section in the semi-finals. The outright market has only adjusted itself to this projected draw. For a long time Australia were second favourites for the competition but they have been usurped as bettors have realized that South Africa need to be respected.

Indeed, Australia are beginning to look bad value because they are in the obligatory 'Group of Death.' They lost to Zimbabwe in the inaugural World Twenty20 two years ago and this jamboree is far from their main focus this summer. And if they are still alive after the preliminary then Group E could kill them off. It is devilishly hard group to call.

India are worthy favourites for the competition given they boast six bowlers and four batsmen in their squad who made either the top 10 runscorers or wicket-takers in the IPL, an international tournament in all but name.

As for England, they are a confident crew and home knowledge of the way the ball swings and seams should not be underestimated. New Zealand also know how to play in difficult bowling conditions and in Ross Taylor and Daniel Vettori they have performers who could spring a surprise in the group toppers.

If you think that this column is trying to suggest the value may lie in the potential members of Group F then you are correct.

Pakistan, if they beat England at The Oval on June 7, look a fantastic price at [9.20]. They are rather the forgotten team of Twenty20 after their players were banned from performing in the IPL. But that is a blessing. Pakistan often struggle to find a common cause in their dressing room and showing the world that their isolation is unjust could make the difference in improving on their runners-up tag in 2007.

Emotion aside, what makes Pakistan a good call is this simple fact: they are the best Twenty20 side in the world. They have only ever lost three matches and have an incredible win percentage of 76%. It dwarfs the records of other teams: Australia 52%, Bangladesh 30%, England 49%, India 58%, New Zealand 38%, South Africa 61%, Sri Lanka 61%, West Indies 36%.

For a fancy back and lay, one could do worse than have a snippet of Ireland at [550.00]. They are more than capable of pulling off a shock against Bangladesh, which could be enough to make them surprise Super 8 members.

They play Bangladesh at a swing friendly Trent Bridge and after beating them in the last World Cup they will be confident of landing a giantkilling blow, and getting a few of those fans out of their sofas in the process.

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1. Dave Nolan | 02 June 2009

   You've definately got the value right here Ed.Group E looks a case of perm any two from 4 whilst Group F would have Pakistan looking 1.20 to reach the semis.Once in the semis it's difficult to see them being on offer at any more than 5.0.Looks a classic back to lay even if you don't fancy them to win outright.

   Dave Nolan

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