Twenty20 World Cup / Ed Hawkins / 05 May 2010 /

The Super Eight stage of the World Twenty20 starts in Bridgetown on Thursday and it's England first up against Pakistan. The toss and the weather are key to a successful match odds wager, says Ed Hawkins

Team news
Expensive in nine balls against Ireland and disastrously profligate in six against West Indies, can Ryan Sidebottom hold onto his place with James Anderson sitting on the sidelines? Surely not, if only to give his perm respite from the squalls.

Otherwise England will rely on South Africans (Craig Kieswetter, Michael Lumb, and Kevin Pietersen) for a fast start and middle-order stability from an Irishman (Eoin Morgan). Typical English grit could be key, though so give thanks to Paul Collingwood.

Mohammad Sami, who went for 13 an over against Australia in Pakistan's heavy defeat, could be replaced by Mohammad Asif, whose smooth-as-honey action could soothe you to an afternoon nap. You'll soon be bright as a button, though with Mohammad Hafeez, the hapless spinner expected to go crash, bang and wallop.

Venue and conditions
Before yesterday's matches the Bridgetown surface was expected to be as tacky and tricky to bat on as every other wicket in the tournament. And so it proved as Australia lumbered to 141 against Bangladesh. Yet it is what is going on in the sky, rather than the ground, that most counts. Messrs Duckworth and Lewis could have a major say in who wins this tournament. With rain forecast again, it pays to bowl first.

Match odds
It would be folly to have a wager before the toss, even if it is tempting to take the [1.90] now about Pakistan. England are favourites at [1.75].

With the D-L Method likely to be used, batting first becomes a most unfortunate double whammy. Teams are struggling to post challenging totals thanks to the slow nature of the wickets. When the side batting first is straining to break seven an over, it is mightily easy under D-L rules to chase at such a rate over a much shorter distance.

If there is no rain, then Pakistan may be happier doing either first. Their batsmen are more adept on slow surfaces while they know they have the spin options to trouble an England side who get stuck - witness their crawl against Ireland.

Featured market
Morgan has 100 runs in two innings. You can back him to score 25, or lay him if you think the run can't go on.

Top batsman
Morgan will aim to make it three top-bat efforts in a row for England. With the pitches not suiting the strokemakers ahead of him, he will always be value. Don't discount Collingwood, either at around the [7.00] mark. Colly can be just as dangerous on these sort of pitches and Morgan and we're quite happy if he drifts slightly thanks to Morgan's runs.

Salman Butt is Pakistan's top runscorer in the tournament but he has a forgettable record against England. Lower down the order we like Misbah or Abdul Razzaq who have contrasting but effective styles to worry England.

Trivia
Pakistan and England have mket four times in twenty20 with two wins apiece.

Ed Hawkins says: back P Collingwood for top England bat at [6.00] to [7.00].

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