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World Twenty 20 Betting: New Zealand v Sri Lanka

Twenty20 World Cup RSS / / 29 April 2010 /

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Shane Bond has a fine record against Sri Lanka

Shane Bond has a fine record against Sri Lanka

"The toss is key with seven sides in 10 matches batting first and winning"

It's the first game of the World Twenty20 on Friday with the fancied Sri Lankans taking on Daniel Vettori's workers at Providence. Ed Hawkins finds reason to believe there could be an upset.


Team news
Two nicely balanced sides try to knock each other off kilter in the opening match of the World Twenty20 in Providence, Guyana (17.00GMT). Both squeeze every ounce from their respective ability pools, although Sri Lanka's is Lake Placid to New Zealand's Serpentine.

The most important team change is Sri Lanka's decision to use Mahela Jaywardene and Tillakaratne Dilshan as openers. Sanath Jayasuriya is expected to bat in the middle order, taking him right back to the start of his career.

Sri Lanka will rely on an army of spinners led by Muttiah Muralitharan and Ajantha Mendis. There was no room in the squad for IPL men Dilhara Fernando or Thilan Thushara.

The wonderfully rotund Jesse Ryder is fit for the Kiwis but was strangely absent in the warm-up against West Indies. Surely he will replace the dreadful Aaron Redmond at the top of the order? Otherwise New Zealand could bat all the way down to No 9 thanks to Daniel Vettori, Jacob Oram and Nathan McCullum.


Venue and conditions
There is rain around for this contest at Providence so don't be surprised if we get a reduction in overs, especially with a game to fit in after this one. The toss is key with seven sides in 10 matches batting first and winning. The highest second innings total is 244. This is the first T20 international played there.


Match odds
One has to fear for New Zealand if they bat second with Sri Lanka's spinners liable to tie them in knots. Sri Lanka, who performed admirably in the Caribbean to contest the last World Cup final, are [1.72]. Conversely the Kiwis could cause problems if it is they who bat first. They are available at [2.32].

If you fancy New Zealand on that basis then you may as well back them to win the group at an inflated [2.50]. Despite Zimbabwe's resurgence Vettori and co should have enough to beat them.

The stats would appear to demand Sri Lanka should win comfortably. Of the last 11 meetings in one-day cricket, Sri Lanka have won eight. Delve a little deeper, however and it is two apiece in the Twenty20 games played during that period. On a toss game, that might be enough to favour the Kiwis.


Featured market
Dilshan was top runscorer in the last T20 World Cup. He is favourite for the man of the match, an award which has a cosy relationship with the winning side's top bat.


Top batsman
In two matches Jayasuriya averages 70 on this ground and he could be value to shine down the order in his finishing role. In terms of the recent head-to-heads, Dilshan and Ross Taylor have top scored twice apiece in the last four matches.


Trivia
Shane Bond has taken 18 wickets against Sri Lanka in 13 matches.


Ed Hawkins says: back New Zealand at [2.32].

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