Twenty20 / Ed Hawkins / 06 July 2010 /

Australia and Pakistan meet again at Edgbaston today (16.00GMT). After a comfortable win in game one, Pakistan remain underrated on the market. Can we trust them again? Ed Hawkins finds out

Team news
World cricket tends to have a short memory. Only two years ago Pakistan were world Twenty20 champions and in the Caribbean in May they would have made it three consecutive finals in the tournament but not for a freakish innings from Mike Hussey. Yet they are consistently written off.

Their problems back home, with selection and in the dressing room are well documented. But it has always been that way. It is important for bettors to look past that.

The cosy victory over Australia at Edgbaston on Monday will make it easier. Do Pakistan have a fast starter at the top of the innings? Check (Kamran Akmal). Do they have players in the middle order who complement one another in terms of hitting and finding the gaps? Check (Shoaib Malik, Shahid Afridi, Umar Akmal and Abdur Razzaq). Do they have a good spinner? Check (Saeed Ajmal). Do they have the best death bowler in the world? Check (Umar Gul).

In a man for man contest the Australians do not fair so well. Michael Clarke, the No 3 and captain, is probably not worth his place. In his last seven innings his top score is 27 and a strike rate of 101 is not quick enough.

Venue and conditions
Edgbaston was a home from home for Pakistan as the horns and trumpets blared. Who needs a vuvuzela? Afridi's men will get similar support today and it is possible that the hordes might see a higher scoring game. With 167 batting first, Pakistan were under par on a surface which has been full of runs in the domestic Twenty20 league. The average in six games is 176.

With both teams having got used to the wicket, expect more strokeplay. The good nature of the wicket is backed up the highest individual scores this term: 88, 85, 66, 81, 54 and 58. Going over 68.5 is a [2.02] chance.

Match odds
There is an awful lot to like about Pakistan, particularly at prices as big as [2.60]. Australia are as short [1.60]. The problem is, on some days there can be an awful lot to dislike. If you are going to get with Pakistan, you should expect the unexpected.

Brilliant or bad, they are capable in equal measure and there is a nagging doubt in the mind that having been unstoppable in game one, they might revert to bad habits.

Australia need to counter Ajmal and Afridi, the spin twins who can tie them in knots, while cranking up pace aces Dirk Nannes, Shaun Tait and Mitchell Johnson to bend their back to get the ball where Pakistan's batsmen traditionally don't like it.

Hope Australia chase. Hope it's a close game. And then get with Pakistan thanks to Gul's majesty in the final few overs.

Top batsman
David Warner (41) and Umar Akmal (64) will both be popular at [4.50] and [5.00] respectively to repeat their top-bat efforts. Warner reverted to type while Akmal bucked a trend. Openers have, unsurprisingly, dominated on this ground in county Twenty20 this term - top-scoring six times.

It is unlikely you would want to get with either of Pakistan's openers so a better option could be Kamran at [4.60] to keep up with his brother or Shoaib Malik at [7.00], who looks the most overpriced. For Australia, David Hussey has form. He made 81 for Nottinghamshire against Warwickshire earlier in the summer in T20. He is big at [7.00].

Featured market
Pakistan's gravest weakness, whatever the format, is a lack of a stable, and class, opening partnership. They will probably keep faith with Salman Butt and Shahzaib Hasan - their 13 combination in Twenty20 - today. The pair put on only two in their first partnership together in game one. Historically they are up against it. The average Pakistan opening partnership in the last 10 games is just 19.5. A lay for 30 runs or more could pay dividends at up to [2.50].

Ed Hawkins says: lay Pakistan opening partnership for 30 runs or more at [2.50].

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