Twenty20 / Andrew Hughes / 06 October 2011 /

Mumbai will have all the support but Andrew Hughes believes that the first ever English team to reach the last four can shock the Indians in Saturday's semi-final.

Mumbai Indians v Somerset Sabres, Start 15:30 BST, Eurosport UK, Mumbai [1.8], Somerset [2.22]

Team News

Somerset dropped George Dockrell for the game against Warriors on Wednesday after he leaked a lot of runs against but on this surface, the Sabres may want a three-spinner attack and that could mean a recall for the Irishman.

Mumbai have nine players injured and although they have been given permission to play five foreign players, they are already using their full quota. Tirumalasetti Suman could come in to the middle order and young fast bowler Abu Nechim is another option if they want to freshen up their attack.

Venue and Conditions

Of the three venues used for the Champions League, the M A Chidambaram Stadium has offered the most help to bowlers, particularly spinners. With the ball not coming onto the bat and the surface offering plenty of turn, any total over 150 is likely to be a match winning one. Thunderstorms are forecast, so with Duckworth Lewis possibly coming into play, batting second could be an advantage.

Match Odds

Somerset are the only one of the semi-finalists to have come through the qualifying round and have lost only once, when they came up against Chris Gayle. Their fielding has been excellent throughout, their canny slow and medium paced bowling is just the ticket on these slow surfaces and they've come up with big innings when it matters, usually from star signing Roelof van der Merwe.

Mumbai without Sachin Tendulkar, Munaf Patel and Rohit Sharma have been a disappointment. They were down and out against Chennai before pulling off a miracle, nearly threw away a game against Trinidad and ended the Group stage with a lacklustre defeat against New South Wales. Their batting has been flaky throughout and if it weren't for Harbhajan Singh and Lasith Malinga, they'd already be out.

Interestingly, Mumbai's big hitters struggled badly against Trinidad's array of spinners and could find things tricky against the Sabres canny slow bowlers. Providing they can survive the challenge of Malinga, Somerset have the edge with the bat, are sharper in the field and may just want this more. At [2.22] the men from Taunton are cracking value to reach another Twenty20 final.

Top Batsman
Craig Kieswetter is looking in good nick, and there have been valuable contributions from Jos Buttler, Nick Compton and James Hildreth, but the man to be on is Roelof van der Merwe. He is in the form of his life and should be backed at [4.5] or better.

For Mumbai, Andrew Symonds is looking past his best and Kieron Pollard hasn't really fired yet. James Franklin is at least in form, having hit a solid looking 40 against New South Wales and on a tricky pitch is the preferred option at around [5.5]

Best Bet

Andrew Hughes says: Back Somerset to win @ 2.22

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