Tour De France / Tobias Gourlay / 05 July 2009 /

Tobias Gourlay looks forward to what he expects will be the first bunch sprint of the 2009 Tour de France.

The first road stage of the 2009 Tour leaves Monaco, scene of yesterday's time-trial, for Provence and a flat finish in Brignoles. The stage begins with a third-category climb, but finishes on the flat and, like 15 of the last 16 opening road stages, should be won by a sprinter. The possibility of a successful breakaway is reduced by the strong winds often seen on the French Riviera.

Mark Cavendish, the favourite to win today, did not extend himself fully in the opening time-trial, coming in 177th of the 180 riders, and his rivals too were conscious of saving their legs for a sprint today. Thor Hushovd, a highly competent time-triallist who won the 2006 Prologue, managed 120th, while Tom Boonen and Oscar Freire were also outside the top 100.

Cavendish's Columbia team will want to organise the lead-out to the sprint finish, and usually do. If the Briton sticks with his new 'pilot fish', Andre Greipel, no-one will pass him in the last few hundred metres. This column's money is with the Manx Missile. If you fancy someone else - Cavendish was surprised by Alessandro Petacchi early in this year's Giro d'Italia, and the lately reprieved Boonen ([15.0]), for example, might be capable of something similar - he could still be a useful saver at [2.12].

Earlier in the day, there are three intermediate sprints for points. If Cavendish involves himself in those, rather than concentrating purely on the stage win, you have your first indication that he is serious about wanting to wear green in Paris.

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