Tour De France / Tobias Gourlay / 04 July 2009 /

Tobias Gourlay ponders the outcome of today's opening time-trial in Monaco.

The 2009 Tour de France begins in Monaco, somewhere it has not visited for 45 years. Cramming a 15km time trial into the 2km-square principality suggests the race directors are making a sort of apology for their neglect. The teams will set up in the Formula One pit area and the riders will follow some of the famous motor-racing circuit.

The distance is comfortably in excess of the 8km that usually comprise a prologue, and the course is hillier than usual. The climb up the Moyenne Corniche, followed by a technically demanding descent, raises the prospect of serious time gaps being opened up between the major contenders for the yellow jersey.

"In 2005, on such a course, I would have destroyed the race and made huge gaps," Lance Armstrong told L'Equipe recently. Today will be a useful indication of how far the American ([17.5] to win the stage) has declined, just as it should tell us a lot about the form of his rivals.

Fabian Cancellara, the Olympic Time-Trial Champion and twice the World Time-Trial Champion, is a [1.71] favourite to be the first rider to don the maillot jaune at this year's Tour. Spartacus won the prologues at the Tour of California and the Tour de Suisse this year, and his overall win at the latter suggests he can handle today's up-and-down course.

The most appealing proposition is Alberto Contador, the favourite to wear yellow in Paris in three weeks' time, and recently a winner of the Paris-Nice Prologue and the Spanish time-trial championships. The fourth-category climb should suit him more than time-trial specialists like Britain's Bradley Wiggins. If he descends well [12] is an attractive price for him to win, although it would be reassuring to know more about the form of a rider who has spent most of the last couple of months in training. There's probably value too in backing him at [2.7] for a top-three finish today.

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